Impact of technological innovation on CO2emissions and emissions trendprediction on‘New Normal’economy in China

Özet

As the largest carbon emitter in the world, China faces up with great pressure to reduce emissions. China'seconomy stepped into a status so called‘New Normal’, in which major change is taking place in terms of growthrate & force, development model, and economic structure. Firstly, an extended Stochastic Impacts by Regressionon Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model was established to study the impact of technologicalinnovation on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions based on Chinese provincial panel data from 1997 to 2015.Secondly, the sample was classified into two groups, namely high-speed growth group and low-speed growthgroup, and the extended STIRPAT model was used to investigate the impact of technological innovation on CO2emissions in these two groups. Thirdly, scenario simulations were herein introduced to predict CO2emissions in2016–2030 as economy stepped into the‘New Normal’. Finally, logistic equation was applied to predict CO2emissions during the period of 2016–2030. It was deduced that in comparison with the high-speed growth group,independent innovation makes a greater contribution on promoting CO2emissions as the economy keeps aslowly growth rate. Besides, the contribution of introducing innovation on CO2emissions was proven to beessentially marginal as for the low-speed growth group although it has significant impact effect on reducing CO2emissions from the high-speed growth group. The prediction indicates new progress on CO2emissions reductionin the future China will be achieved as appropriate policy on technological innovation is issued by government inthe‘New Normal’period.