Spatial analysis on carbon emission abatement capacity at provincial level inChina from 1997 to 2014: An empirical study based on SDM model

Özet

Currently, the increasing carbon emissions accompanied with rapid urbanization and industrial development isthe central environmental problem in China. In this paper, the carbon emission abatement index (CACI) con-sisting of equal weighted efficiency and equity indexes is employed tofigure out the allocation of carbonemission mitigation quotient when the inclination and capacity in each province are all taken into consideration.Then, the novel spatial panel data model combined with economic weight matrix is used to estimate the spatialdependence of the carbon emission reduction potential at the provincial level. Moreover, the driving forces areexamined. The result suggests that the provinces with low marginal cost and per capita carbon emissions shouldtake on more burdens regarding carbon emission reduction (e.g. Ningxia, Shanghai, Shanxi, Qinghai andTianjin), while the provinces with low economic development and carbon intensity can be allocated relativelyless loads (e.g. Sichuan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Anhui and Hunan). Furthermore, the capacity of carbon emissionmitigation is negatively affected by urbanization and positively affected by per capita GDP, population densityand energy intensity. The coefficients of economic development and energy utilization efficiency are also sta-tistically significant, and indicates mutual effects among regions.