ALTIN FİYATI İLE İTHALAT VE İŞLEM MİKTARI, BRENT PETROL VE DIŞ TİCARET ETKİLEŞİMİ

INTERACTION BETWEEN GOLD PRICES AND IMPORTS & TRADING VOLUME, BRENT OIL AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Özet

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 2000 ile 2017 yılları arasında üçer aylık külçe/gr altın fiyatı ile belli başlı makro ve finansal değişkenler (altın ithalat miktarı, dış ticaret endeksi ve döviz kuru gibi) arasındaki ekonomik ilişki, istatistiksel olarak modellendirilip; açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışmanın temel amacı altın ithalat miktarı, altın piyasası endeksi, altın işlem miktarı, dış ticaret endeksi, USD kuru ve Avro kurundaki çeyrek dönemlik değişimler gibi değişkenlerin bir bütün olarak külçe/gr altın fiyatı üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisinin olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Aynı zamanda, altın fiyatıyla bu değişkenler arasında karşılıklı anlamlı ilişkiler olup olmadığı; varsa bu ilişkilerin dereceleri araştırılmaktır. Yapılan basit regresyon analizi sonucu, cumhuriyet altını fiyatı, brent petrol fiyatı ve dış ticaret endeksinde oluşan değişikliklerin, altın fiyatını aynı (pozitif) yönlü etkilediği; altın piyasası endeksi, altın işlem miktarı ve altın ithalat miktarındaki değişikliklerin, altın fiyatını ters (negatif) yönde etkilediği görülmektedir.

Abstract

1. LITERATURE Gold, today, is not only a tool that people use for exchange as a physical commodity; but it has also been used as an alternative investment tool to stock exchanges, bonds and foreign exchange; and is very effective on these data sets as well. Across the global economy, the effects of changes in the prices of commodities such as gold and oil on the markets are generally realized through the exchange rate, Melvin and Sultan (1990), Furlong and Ingentina (1996), Hooker (2002) and Lee and Chang (2011). This is because, the price of gold and oil is again determined by the value of dollar, Bordo et al. (1992), Bağış (2016) and Eichengreen (1995). Literature demonstrates that the gold prices move mostly along with the value of major commodities such as brent oil and the US dollar, Cashin et al. (1999), Zhang and Wei (2010), Simakova (2011), Bampinasa and Panagiotidis (2015) and Nirmala and Deepthy (2015). The effects of balance of foreign trade and savings, risky alternatives such as bonds and stocks on gold prices also cannot be denied. On the other hand, the imbalances between the demand and supply of gold also have the potential to fluctuate gold prices, e.g. Göçer et al. (2019) and İnal and Aydın (2016). However, how these relationships or interactions are measured is just as important. In the literature, there is no consensus on the direction and magnitude of these effects. 2. DESIGN AND METHOD Among the many variables that affect gold prices (based on empirical evidence and literature reviews), the main variables such as gold import quantity, gold market index, gold trade amount, foreign trade index, republic gold price (TL), brent oil barrel price, euro and dollar exchange rates are considered as independent variables in the model. In our model, the dependent variable is bullion/gr gold price (TL). 2.2. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS The regression model established to measure the mathematical relationship is tested in many ways with the variables. The variables that disrupt the model are, subsequently, removed from the model. Consequently, a final version is accepted. Meanwhile, because it will be difficult to predict the effect of all these elements together; different terms are added to each regression analysis. Using a final version of the model with few of these elements that we think affects the price of gold, we aim to create simple regression analysis based on data from 2000-2017 in Turkey and try to reach a conclusion. Exchange rate volatilities and the relative values of national currencies may have a huge negative impact on input costs and trade, inflation rates and ultimately the overall economic activities of countries. This would, hence, put all the decision-makers and market players in the country, from investors to the economists and policy makers, in a search for more stable new investment and trading instruments. As a critical alternative to dollar and euro, gold is often the first option that comes to mind. In fact, gold as a means of exchange and investment has always been a valuable commodity starting from the early ages. In addition, in case of any economic crisis or political development, gold also moves much slower than dollar and Euro, both ways. This allows people, investors and legal entities to trust gold much more than the other currencies. 3. FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION The issue of many alternatives that economists can use as a precaution to prevent currency fluctuations caused by economic crises and the loss of value due to exchange rate differences is a major concern today. Using gold instead of popular currencies such as dollar or Euro, as an alternative common currency, is one of the popular ideas economists and policy-makers discuss today. In this study, we aim to reach a conclusion regarding these variables’ interaction and relationship, by applying regression analysis over a pre-determined data set. 3.1 DISCUSSING the FINDINGS with the LITERATURE The rate of explanation power of the independent variables in this model is about 67%. When we examine the coefficients of the variables in the model, we observe that changes in gold market index, gold import amount and gold transaction amount have negative effects on gold price; while changes in the gold of the republic, brent oil price an