Manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment, exchange rate and oil price: a u.s. state-level time series analysis

Özet

\r\n This paper investigates the time series properties of U.S. state-level manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment and two economy-wide variables: real effective exchange rate and real oil price. Examining the 1990 to 2005 period, cointegration tests and error-correction models reveal a long run relationship between manufacturing employment and the exchange rate in eleven states, while no evidence of this relationship between non-manufacturing employment and the exchange rate was detected. Additionally, in the vast majority of states, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment appear to have a long-run equilibrium relationship with the real price of oil.\r\n