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Dergiler / Turkish Journal of Civil Engineering / 2020 / Cilt: 31 - Sayı: 4

Assessment of the Disaster Recovery Progress through Mathematical Modelling

Seyyit Ümit DİKMEN
Rıfat AKBIYIKLI
Murat SÖNMEZ
Sayfa
10113–10126
Yayın Tarihi
2020-07-01
DOI
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Results of the Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the recovery process exhibits an S-shape, the duration of initial portion and the slope of the bulk portion being significantly governed by the level of preparedness of the community.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:Natural disasters, especially major earthquakes, cause widespread devastation in the built environment.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Weibull distribution is used to generate the model’s parameters.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Results of the Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the recovery process exhibits an S-shape, the duration of initial portion and the slope of the bulk portion being significantly governed by the level of preparedness of the community.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:Disaster · recovery curve · mathematical modelling

Özet

Natural disasters, especially major earthquakes, cause widespread devastation in the built environment. Hence, the major component of the recovery in its aftermath constitutes a chain of projects starting at different times, having different costs and durations. In this study, the post disaster recovery curve modelled through a mathematical approach taking into account these properties of the projects. The approach followed is based on the project S-curve concept that provides the opportunity to simulate the progress by outlining the project spending. Well-known mathematical functions are adapted to model the project spending and the handover processes. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the general behavior of the recovery curve using the model developed. Weibull distribution is used to generate the model’s parameters. Results of the Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the recovery process exhibits an S-shape, the duration of initial portion and the slope of the bulk portion being significantly governed by the level of preparedness of the community.

Abstract

Natural disasters, especially major earthquakes, cause widespread devastation in the built environment. Hence, the major component of the recovery in its aftermath constitutes a chain of projects starting at different times, having different costs and durations. In this study, the post disaster recovery curve modelled through a mathematical approach taking into account these properties of the projects. The approach followed is based on the project S-curve concept that provides the opportunity to simulate the progress by outlining the project spending. Well-known mathematical functions are adapted to model the project spending and the handover processes. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the general behavior of the recovery curve using the model developed. Weibull distribution is used to generate the model’s parameters. Results of the Monte Carlo simulation demonstrate that the recovery process exhibits an S-shape, the duration of initial portion and the slope of the bulk portion being significantly governed by the level of preparedness of the community.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

DİKMEN, S. Ü., AKBIYIKLI, R., SÖNMEZ, M. (2020). Assessment of the Disaster Recovery Progress through Mathematical Modelling. Turkish Journal of Civil Engineering, Cilt: 31 - Sayı: 4, 10113–10126. https://ajindex.com/articles/864210

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