The Political Economy of Turkish-Russian Relations: Dynamics of Asymmetric Interdependence

Abstract

In examining Turkish-Russian economic relations, this paper puts forward three arguments. First, the relationship is characterized by an asymmetric interdependence that favors Russia over Turkey. The source of the asymmetry lies in the divergent domestic economic structures of the two countries. Moreover, the developments in the aftermath of the jet crisis of 2015 demonstrated Turkey’s vulnerability to Russian economic sanctions. To support this argument, I use trade and foreign direct investment data to analyze the evolution of Turkish-Russian economic ties over the past decade. Second, international developments such as the global financial crisis and the West’s sanctions against Russia have significantly diminished the capacity of Turkish-Russian economic cooperation. Third, Turkish-Russian economic interdependence cannot soon transform into complex interdependence that characterizes bilateral ties in the advanced capitalist world. Despite the growing role of business groups and humanitarian ties, politics will continue to shape the prospects of Turkish-Russian economic cooperation in the foreseeable future.