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Dergiler / Türk Tarım ve Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi / 2014 / Cilt: 1 - Sayı: 1

Stochastic Risk Volatility Forecasting in Poultry Agribusiness in Delta State, Nigeria

Nijerya Delta Eyaleti Tavukçuluk Endüstrisinde Stokastik Risk Olarak Fiyat Değişimlerinin Tahmini

Achoja Felix ODEMERO
Okoh Rosemary NGOZİ
Sayfa
1–9
Yayın Tarihi
2014-07-26
DOI
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

The study recommends early warning / early mitigate for measures of the short run to manage financial risk in poultry industry.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:The dearth of information on financial risk has negative effect on the growth of poultry agribusiness.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Six years panel data (2004 – 2009) were collected from 200 poultry farms using structured questionnaire.
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Sonuç & Katkı:The study recommends early warning / early mitigate for measures of the short run to manage financial risk in poultry industry.
🔬Tür:Uygulamalı Anket & Alan Araştırması
📍Kapsam:2004 – 2009 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Financial · Risk · Volatility

Özet

The dearth of information on financial risk has negative effect on the growth of poultry agribusiness. The purpose of the study was to determine the mean financial risk volatility in poultry agribusiness in Delta state, Nigeria. Six years panel data (2004 – 2009) were collected from 200 poultry farms using structured questionnaire. Collected data were analyzed using ARCH(5,5) Model and Time Response Model. Test of hypothesis using Durbin Watson statistics indicated that there is no volatility clustering of financial returns. The result of ARCH model showed a random walk (i.e. upward and downward swings) of standard error of financial risk with a mean volatility of 7.5% in poultry agribusiness over the 6 years period. Time Response prediction model gave an impression that short run forecast of financial risk volatility in poultry agribusiness is feasible. The study recommends early warning / early mitigate for measures of the short run to manage financial risk in poultry industry.

Abstract

The dearth of information on financial risk has negative effect on the growth of poultry agribusiness. The purpose of the study was to determine the mean financial risk volatility in poultry agribusiness in Delta state, Nigeria. Six years panel data (2004 – 2009) were collected from 200 poultry farms using structured questionnaire. Collected data were analyzed using ARCH(5,5) Model and Time Response Model. Test of hypothesis using Durbin Watson statistics indicated that there is no volatility clustering of financial returns. The result of ARCH model showed a random walk (i.e. upward and downward swings) of standard error of financial risk with a mean volatility of 7.5% in poultry agribusiness over the 6 years period. Time Response prediction model gave an impression that short run forecast of financial risk volatility in poultry agribusiness is feasible. The study recommends early warning / early mitigate for measures of the short run to manage financial risk in poultry industry.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

ODEMERO, A. F., NGOZİ, O. R. (2014). Stochastic Risk Volatility Forecasting in Poultry Agribusiness in Delta State, Nigeria. Türk Tarım ve Doğa Bilimleri Dergisi, Cilt: 1 - Sayı: 1, 1–9. https://ajindex.com/articles/706798

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Kaynakça (10)

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