Spatial decision making under determinism vs. uncertainty: A comparative multi-level approach to preference mapping

Abstract

The aim of this study is to highlight the importance of uncertainty assessmentsin GIS-based multi-attribute land-use decision making. To this end, and based on the basic premise that uncertainty makes a difference, it makes use of an existing deterministic goal-driven and hierarchical GIS-based land-use conflict model known as LUCIS (Land-Use Conflict Identification Strategy),the aim of which is to create a land-use conflict map betweenagricultural, urban and ecologically sensitive land-usepreferences for future planning scenarios. Being confined to its agricultural preference (overall goal)mapping,the newly developed uncertainty models and maps are compared with their corresponding deterministic models and maps at each level of the LUCIS hierarchy. The comparative models are applied to the case of Hillsborough County in Florida, which ischaracterized by a high level of conflict between the three landuses. Different levels of differences in terms of pattern/shape/form and the degree of agricultural land-use suitability are identified and assessed at all levels of the hierarchy.