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Dergiler / Teknik Dergi / 2022 / Cilt: 33 - Sayı: 2

Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case

Sertac ORUC
İsmail YÜCEL
Ayşen YILMAZ
Sayfa
11749–11778
Yayın Tarihi
2022-03-01
DOI
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for (1950-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections (2015-2098 period) of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:2015 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Climate Change · Stormwater · Nonstationary

Özet

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for (1950-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections (2015-2098 period) of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales, 5 minutes storm durations, then five minutes time series aggregated to the storm durations that are subject of interest. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models and stationary GEV models for observed and future data are obtained. Nonstationary model results are in general exhibited smaller return level values with respect to stationary model results of each storm duration for observed data driven model results. Considering the projected data driven model results; on average nonstationary models produce mostly lower return levels for mid and longer return periods for all storm durations and return periods except one hour storm duration. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.

Abstract

This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation. Rainfall analysis with stationary and nonstationary approach for observed and future conditions is performed for (1950-2015 period) observed data of 5, 10, 15, 30 minutes and 1, 2, 3, 6 hour and projections (2015-2098 period) of 10, 15 minutes and 1, 6 hour for Ankara province, Turkey. Daily projections are disaggregated to finer scales, 5 minutes storm durations, then five minutes time series aggregated to the storm durations that are subject of interest. Nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models and stationary GEV models for observed and future data are obtained. Nonstationary model results are in general exhibited smaller return level values with respect to stationary model results of each storm duration for observed data driven model results. Considering the projected data driven model results; on average nonstationary models produce mostly lower return levels for mid and longer return periods for all storm durations and return periods except one hour storm duration. Depending on the models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), there are different results for the future extreme rainfall input; yet all results indicate a decreasing extreme trend.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

ORUC, S., YÜCEL, İ., YILMAZ, A. (2022). Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation: Capital Ankara Case. Teknik Dergi, Cilt: 33 - Sayı: 2, 11749–11778. https://ajindex.com/articles/386385

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Kaynakça (7)

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