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Dergiler / Rouya Türkiyyah / 2026 / Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3

تركيا ومستقبل التطبيع في الشرق الأوسط

Türkiye and the Future of Normalization in the Middle East

Burhanettin Duran(Dışişleri Bakanlığı)0000-0001-5682-0583
Sayfa
77–100
Yayın Tarihi
2022-07-01
DOI
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Overall, the pursuit of normalization is encouraging but not without flaws due to the persistence of ideological differences and conflicts of interest among regional actors and between major international powers.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:Following the Arab Spring, all the nations in the Middle East started to pursue a phase of regional de-escalation after a protracted era of strife and rivalry.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:This research attempts to elaborate on the dynamics of the normalization process ushered in by the Arab Spring and Türkiye’s role in spearheading this process with projected outcomes aimed at long term stability in the region.
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:Overall, the pursuit of normalization is encouraging but not without flaws due to the persistence of ideological differences and conflicts of interest among regional actors and between major international powers.
🔬Tür:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:Türkiye · Normalisation · Middle East

Abstract

Following the Arab Spring, all the nations in the Middle East started to pursue a phase of regional de-escalation after a protracted era of strife and rivalry. This research attempts to elaborate on the dynamics of the normalization process ushered in by the Arab Spring and Türkiye’s role in spearheading this process with projected outcomes aimed at long term stability in the region. Overall, the pursuit of normalization is encouraging but not without flaws due to the persistence of ideological differences and conflicts of interest among regional actors and between major international powers.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Duran, B. (2022). تركيا ومستقبل التطبيع في الشرق الأوسط. Rouya Türkiyyah, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 3, 77–100. https://ajindex.com/articles/1599939

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Kaynakça (28)

  1. Burhanettin Duran and Nuh Yılmaz, A Competition of Models in the Middle East: The New Balance of Power after the Arab Spring, SETA, 2011.
  2. Samuel Ramani, “The Qatar Blockade Is Over, but the Gulf Crisis Lives On”, Foreign Policy, January 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/27/qatar-blockade-gcc-divisions-turkey-libya-palestine/ (Accessed: 28 May 2022).
  3. Richard Haaas, “The Post-American Middle East,” Project Syndicate, December 2019, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/post-american-middle-east-by-richard-n-haass-2019-12. (Accessed: 28 May 2022).
  4. Regarding the U.S. strategy of retrenchment, see Joseph M. Parent and Paul K. MacDonald, “The Wisdom of Retrenchment. America Must Cut Back to Move Forward”, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2011; Thomas Wright, “The Folly of Retrenchment. Why America Can’t Withdraw From the World”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2020; Charles A. Kupchan, “America’s Pullback Must Continue No Matter Who Is President”, Foreign Policy, 21 October 2020.
  5. Ufuk Ulutaş and Burhanettin Duran, [Traditional Competition or Regional Design in the Middle East? AK Party from its Foundation to the Present: Foreign Policy], SETA, 2016.
  6. On Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the reactions to it, see Kadir Üstün and Kılıç B. Kanat, Trump’s Jeruselam Move, SETA, 2020.
  7. Hussein Ibish, Wary But Intrigued, Saudi Arabia is Still Weighing Potential Ties to Israel, The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, September 2021, https://agsiw.org/wary-but-intrigued-saudi-arabia-is-still-weighing-potential-ties-to-israel/. (Accessed: 28 May 2022). Batu Coşkun, “Birinci Yıldönümünde İbrahim Anlaşmaları: Bölgeyi Nasıl Değiştirdi” [The First Anniversary of the Abraham Accords: How it changed the region], Sabah, September 2021, https://www.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/perspektif/batu-coskun/2021/09/18/birinci-yildonumunde-ibrahim-anlasmalari-bolgeyi-nasil-degistirdi. (Accessed: 28 May 2022).
  8. See Kemal Inat and Burhanettin Duran, “İran Yaptırımları” [The Iran sanctions], SETA, 2019.
  9. Sayed Zafar Mahdi and Ali Abo Rezeg, “Regional rivals Iran, Saudi Arabia looking to break ice, why now?”, Anadolu Agency, October 2021, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/regional-rivals-iran-saudi-arabia-looking-to-break-ice-why-now/2396253. (Accessed: 28 May 2022).
  10. Ghaida Ghantous and Aziz El Yaakoubi, “Stuck in the middle? UAE walks tightrope between U.S, Israel and Iran.”, Reuters, December 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/stuck-middle-uae-walks-tightrope-between-us-israel-iran-2021-12-12/. (Accessed: 28 May 2022).
  11. ” [Turkey reacts to the storming of Al-Aqsa by fanatical Jewish groups], Anadolu Agency, 29 May 2022.
  12. كشف الرئيس ترامب عن اتفاقيات أبراهام في البيت الأبيض في 15 سبتمبر 2020
  13. Zaha Hassan and Marwan Muasher, “Why The Abraham Accords Fall Short,” Foreign Affairs, June 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2022-06-07/why-abraham-accords-fall-short. (Accessed: 9 June 2022).
  14. Abduljabbar Aburas and Halime Afra Aksoy, “Körfez ülkeleri ortak dış politika belirleyebilir mi?” [Could the Gulf states adopt a common foreign policy?], Anadolu Agency, January 2022, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/analiz/korfez-ulkeleri-ortak-dis-politika-belirleyebilir-mi/2466116. (Accessed: 30 May 2022).
  15. Gerald M. Feierstein, Bilal Y. Saab and Karen E. Young, “US-Gulf Relations at the Crossroads: Time for a Recalibration.”, Middle East Institute, April 2022, https://mei.edu/publications/us-gulf-relations-crossroads-time-recalibration. (Accessed: 28 May 2022).
  16. Jonathan Fenton-Harvey, “6 months after Al-Ula: Has the Gulf crisis really ended?”, Anadolu Agency, July 2021, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-6-months-after-al-ula-has-the-gulf-crisis-really-ended/2295423.
  17. “Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr: Saudi Arabia executes top Shia cleric”, BBC, January 2016, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35213244. (Accessed: 28 May 2022).
  18. “Houthi attacks expose Saudi Arabia’s defense weakness”, DW, March 2022, https://www.dw.com/en/houthi-attacks-expose-saudi-arabias-defense-weakness/a-61294825. (Accessed: 30 May 2022).
  19. Maziar Motamedi, “Iran, Saudi Arabia hold fifth round of talks in Baghdad”, Al Jazeera English, April 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/23/iran-and-saudi-arabia-hold-stalled-5th-round-of-talks-in-baghdad. (Accessed: 30 May 2022).
  20. Hamdan Al-Shehri, “Russia’s Syria withdrawal a boon for Iran’s regional Project”, Arab News, June 2022, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2096641. (Accessed: 30 May 2022).
  21. Umar Farooq, “The Second Drone Age: How Turkey Defied the U.S. and Became a Killer Drone Power”, The Intercept, May 2019, https://theintercept.com/2019/05/14/turkey-second-drone-age/. (Accessed: 4 June 2022).
  22. Burhanettin Duran, “BAE ile nasıl yeni bir sayfa?” [What kind of fresh chapter with the UAE?], Sabah, 26 November 2021; Amjad Ahmad and Defne Arslan, “Turkey and the UAE are getting close again. But why now?”, Atlantic Council, March 2022, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/turkey-and-the-uae-are-getting-close-again-but-why-now/. (Accessed: 4 June 2022).
  23. Çavuşoğlu’s visit: A new stage in Turkey-Israel normalization], Anadolu Agency, 2 June 2022. Burhanettin Duran, “Normalleşme Süreci Testlerden Geçiyor” [The normalization process passes the tests], Sabah, 22 April 2022.
  24. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, “The origins of Saudi-Turkey rapprochement: is it for real?”, Responsible Statecraft, June 2022, https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/06/07/the-origins-of-saudi-turkey-rapprochement/ (Accessed: 8 June 2022); Burhanettin Duran, “Suudi Arabistan’la yeni sayfa” [A fresh chapter with Saudi Arabia] Sabah, 30 April 2022, https://www.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/duran/2022/04/30/suudi-arabistanla-yeni-sayfa.
  25. Ali Bakir and Eyüp Ersoy, “Saudi-Turkish reconciliation is a cause for concern in Iran.”, Middle East Eye, May 2022, https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/saudi-arabia-turkey-reconciliation-iran-concern. (Accessed: 4 June 2022).
  26. Burhanettin Duran, “Synchronization question in Turkey's normalization policy”, Daily Sabah, 10 May 2022.
  27. برهان الدين ضوران دوران، تقييم التواصل الدبلوماسي مع القاهرة، صباح، 13 مارس 2021، https://www.sabah.com.tr/yazarlar/duran/2021/03/13/kahire-ile-diplomatik-temas-ve-yeni-stratejik-degerlendirme.
  28. For the argument that the U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East will revive sectarian rivalry rather than promote normalization, see Vali Nasr, “All Against All: The Sectarian Resurgence in the Post-American Middle East”, Foreign Affairs, January 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2021-12-02/iran-middle-east-all-against-all. (Accessed: 4 June 2022).