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Dergiler / Central Bank Review / 2005 / Cilt: 5 - Sayı: 2

Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Statistical Evidence from the Business Tendency Survey

Yasemin ÖZER BARLAS
Defne MUTLUER
Sayfa
73–97
DOI
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Besides, the paper attempts to see how expectations vary across sub-sectors and to analyze their relationship with other expectations.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:In Turkey, the importance placed on public's expectations about future economic and financial conditions has risen in recent years within the upcoming fully-fledged policy of inflation targeting framework; in accordance, information on expectations of future inflation could be inferred from surveys of expectations.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:The paper not only evaluates the performance of inflation expectations (whether they are in line with realizations and how they react to the shifts in the economy) but also handles the characteristics of their distribution.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Besides, the paper attempts to see how expectations vary across sub-sectors and to analyze their relationship with other expectations.
🔬Tür:Uygulamalı Anket & Alan Araştırması
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:Türkiye · ekonomik analizler · Turkey

Abstract

In Turkey, the importance placed on public's expectations about future economic and financial conditions has risen in recent years within the upcoming fully-fledged policy of inflation targeting framework; in accordance, information on expectations of future inflation could be inferred from surveys of expectations. This paper examines the inflation expectations of firms in the manufacturing sector in Turkey, assessing the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's Business Tendency Survey data. The focus of this paper is a wide-ranging analysis of the characteristics of the inflation expectations of firms rather than their formation. The paper not only evaluates the performance of inflation expectations (whether they are in line with realizations and how they react to the shifts in the economy) but also handles the characteristics of their distribution. Besides, the paper attempts to see how expectations vary across sub-sectors and to analyze their relationship with other expectations.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

BARLAS, Y. Ö., MUTLUER, D. (2005). Inflation Expectations in Turkey: Statistical Evidence from the Business Tendency Survey. Central Bank Review, Cilt: 5 - Sayı: 2, 73–97. https://ajindex.com/articles/152389

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Kaynakça (7)

  1. Barlas, Y. and T. Saraçbaşı. 2003. Examining Inflation Expectations using Multinomial Logit Models. State Institute of Statistics Journal of Statistical Research, 2,2: 75-90.
  2. Barta, J. 1999. Expecting inflation and interest rates, paper presented at the OECD Workshop on Business Tendency Surveys, Manila. Berk, J.M. 1997. Measuring Inflation Expectations: A Survey Data Approach, De Nederlandsche Bank Staff Reports: 97-16.
  3. Brischetto, A. and G. Brouwer. 1999.
  4. Householders' Inflation Expectations, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper, 1999-03.
  5. Demaris, A. 1992. Logit Modeling: Practical Applications. Sage University Paper series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-086.
  6. Newbury Park, CA: Sage. Ece D., T. Hamsici and E. Oral 2004. Building up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey, paper presented at the 54th Session of International Statistical Institute, Berlin. Karadaş, E. and F. Öğünç. 2003. An Analysis of Inflation Expectations of the Turkish Private Manufacturing Industry, Central Bank Review, 2003-02: 57-83
  7. Kershoff, G. 2000. Conducting Inflation Expectation Surveys in South Africa, Research note, Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch. Lyziak, T. 2003. Consumer Inflation Expectations in Poland, ECB Working Paper Series, No: 287. Mankiw, N.G., R. Reis and J. Wolfers. 2003. Disagreement about Inflation Expectations, NBER Working Paper Series, No: 9796. Oral, E. 2002. Inflation Expectations on the Basis of Qualitative Surveys, paper presented at the 26th CIRET Conference, Taipei. Silverman, B.W. 1986. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, Chapman and Hall, London. Uygur, E. 1989. Inflation Expectations of the Turkish Manufacturing Firms, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Discussion Papers, No: 8904.