Dergiler / Central Bank Review / 2005 / Cilt: 5 - Sayı: 1

Persistency of Output Fluctuations: The Case of Turkey

Sayfa
9–21
DOI
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Results of these two approaches show that fluctuations of output are not transitory completely as it was presumed by conventional macroeconomic view.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:According to the conventional view, fluctuations in real gross national product (GNP) represent temporary changes of economic output from its long-term trend that treats real GNP as a trend stationary rather than unit root process.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Examination of this conventional view is crucial since the properties of the fluctuations has an important role in estimation, forecasting and consequently for the evaluation of the economic relationships.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Results of these two approaches show that fluctuations of output are not transitory completely as it was presumed by conventional macroeconomic view.
🔬Tür:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:kestirim · ekonomik analizler · estimation

Abstract

According to the conventional view, fluctuations in real gross national product (GNP) represent temporary changes of economic output from its long-term trend that treats real GNP as a trend stationary rather than unit root process. Examination of this conventional view is crucial since the properties of the fluctuations has an important role in estimation, forecasting and consequently for the evaluation of the economic relationships. The aim of this study is to investigate the persistency of output fluctuations in Turkey. For this purpose two widely used methods are applied. One of them uses parametric approach for measuring the persistency and the other uses non-parametric approach. Results of these two approaches show that fluctuations of output are not transitory completely as it was presumed by conventional macroeconomic view.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

ATABEK, A. D. (2005). Persistency of Output Fluctuations: The Case of Turkey. Central Bank Review, Cilt: 5 - Sayı: 1, 9–21. https://ajindex.com/articles/152385

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Kaynakça (6)

  1. Campbell, John Y. and N. Gregory Mankiw. 1987/A. Are Output Fluctuations Transitory? Quarterly Journal Of Economics
  2. Campbell, John Y. and N. Gregory Mankiw. 1987. Permanent And Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations. The American Economic Review, Vol. 77, No. 2
  3. Cochrane, John H. 1988. How Big Is The Random Walk In GNP? The Journal Of Political Economy, Vol.96, No.5, 893-920
  4. Hamilton D. James, 1989. A New Approach To The Economic Analysis Of Nonstationary Time Series And The Business Cycle. Econometrica, Vol.57, No.2,357-384
  5. Neftçi, N. Salih, 1984. Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric Over The Business Cycles?", The Journal Of Political Economy, Vol.92, No.2,307-328
  6. Nelson, C.R. and C.I Plosser. 1982 Trends And Random Walks In Macroeconomic Time Series. Journal of Monetary Economics 10.