Causal Effect of Potato Production on Export in Nigeria

Abstract

The quest to increase the export earnings of Nigeria is on with emphasis on diversification from the oil sector. Agriculture is the solution to this quest considering the favourable geographic and demographic status of Nigeria. Potato is one of the staple crops produced in most regions in Nigeria. Potato forms part of international best dishes and this strategically positions it as an export crop. To maximize the export potentials of potato, the increase in production is inevitable. This study reveals that potato production causes potato export ceteris paribus. The study made use of Nigeria potato production and export data made available by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Trend analysis and granger causality tests were used for the data analysis. The trend forecast indicates that exports may continue to grow despite decline in the production level, which implies that potato value chain actors will continue to export potato produced for local consumption. Sustainable potato production guidelines should be implemented by the farmers to ensure increase in production to meet the export demand.