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Dergiler / Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics / 2026 / Sayı: 42

Alternative Strategies to Hedge Longevity Risk in Defined Contribution Pension Plans for Loss-Averse Individuals

Murat Kırkağaç(Kütahya Dumlupınar University, Faculty of Applied Sciences, Insurance and Risk Management Department)0000-0002-2703-8768
Yasemin Saykan(Hacettepe University, Faculty of Science, Actuarial Science Department)0000-0002-8916-8509
Sayfa
1–21
Yayın Tarihi
2025-06-25
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

These findings underscore the importance of tailoring investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans to align with individual risk preferences and the financial challenges posed by increasing life expectancy.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:This study aims to determine the optimal investment strategy in defined contribution pension plans by extending beyond the traditional expected utility maximisation framework, and explicitly modelling investor behaviour under loss aversion to capture more realistic decision-making dynamics.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:While determining the optimal investment strategy for loss-averse individuals, the longevity risk arising from the decrease in mortality probabilities observed all over the world in recent years should also be considered.
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Sonuç & Katkı:These findings underscore the importance of tailoring investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans to align with individual risk preferences and the financial challenges posed by increasing life expectancy.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:Defined contribution pension plan · Loss aversion · Optimal investment strategy

Abstract

This study aims to determine the optimal investment strategy in defined contribution pension plans by extending beyond the traditional expected utility maximisation framework, and explicitly modelling investor behaviour under loss aversion to capture more realistic decision-making dynamics. While determining the optimal investment strategy for loss-averse individuals, the longevity risk arising from the decrease in mortality probabilities observed all over the world in recent years should also be considered. Accordingly, the optimal investment strategy for loss-averse individuals is derived by incorporating longevity risk into the model and employing stochastic dynamic programming as the optimisation technique. The results indicate that a loss-averse individual should follow a more aggressive investment strategy in the accumulation period to hedge longevity risk during the distribution period. Given that loss-averse individuals are generally reluctant to engage in riskier investment strategies, this study explores alternative methods to hedge longevity risk. From the results obtained, it is concluded that determining the appropriate contribution rate and the appropriate minimum fund guarantee for the loss-averse individuals reduces the risk in the optimal investment strategy. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans to align with individual risk preferences and the financial challenges posed by increasing life expectancy.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Kırkağaç, M., Saykan, Y. (2025). Alternative Strategies to Hedge Longevity Risk in Defined Contribution Pension Plans for Loss-Averse Individuals. Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Sayı: 42, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2025.42.1472248

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