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Dergiler / Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics / 2026 / Sayı: 44

Avrupa’da Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımın Haritası: MekânsalEkonometrik Bir Yaklaşım

Mapping Foreign Direct Investment in Europe: A Spatial Econometric Approach

Gülsüm Akarsu(ONDOKUZ MAYIS ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-4877-1969
Reyhan Cafrı(İSKENDERUN TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-6271-5330
Hanife Bıdırdı(KOCAELİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-2462-2926
Sayfa
129–153
Yayın Tarihi
2026-07-03
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Mekânsal Durbin modelinin (SDM) kullanıldığı bu çalışmada tahmin sonuçları, mekânsal gecikme katsayısının negatif işaretli ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir.

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Amaç & Hipotez:1980′lerden bu yana, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardaki (DYY) artışla beraber iktisat literatüründe DYY’nin belirleyicilerine yönelik ilgi artmış; bu konudaki ilk çalışmalarda sadece iki ülke arasındaki DYY akımlarına odaklanılarak üçüncü ülke etkileri göz ardı edilmiştir.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Oysaki bir ülkeye yatırım yapılırken, o ülkenin özelliklerinin yanı sıra çevre ülkelerin koşulları da değerlendirilmekte; DYY akımları, komşu ülkelerin DYY çekiciliği üzerinde bir mekânsal yayılma etkisi oluşturabilmektedir.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Mekânsal Durbin modelinin (SDM) kullanıldığı bu çalışmada tahmin sonuçları, mekânsal gecikme katsayısının negatif işaretli ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir.
🔬Tür:Literatür & Derleme Çalışması
📍Kapsam:2004–2021 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım · Avrupa Birliği · Çokuluslu Şirketler

Özet

1980′lerden bu yana, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardaki (DYY) artışla beraber iktisat literatüründe DYY’nin belirleyicilerine yönelik ilgi artmış; bu konudaki ilk çalışmalarda sadece iki ülke arasındaki DYY akımlarına odaklanılarak üçüncü ülke etkileri göz ardı edilmiştir. Oysaki bir ülkeye yatırım yapılırken, o ülkenin özelliklerinin yanı sıra çevre ülkelerin koşulları da değerlendirilmekte; DYY akımları, komşu ülkelerin DYY çekiciliği üzerinde bir mekânsal yayılma etkisi oluşturabilmektedir. Bu kapsamda son yıllarda, geleneksel modellerin ötesine geçilerek, mekânsal ekonometrik modellerin kullanıldığı bazı çalışmalar dikkat çekmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, üçüncü ülke etkilerini de göz önünde bulundurarak Avrupa Birliği ülkelerinde 2004–2021 dönemi için DYY’nin belirleyicilerini mekânsal panel veri modelleri ile analiz etmektir. Mekânsal Durbin modelinin (SDM) kullanıldığı bu çalışmada tahmin sonuçları, mekânsal gecikme katsayısının negatif işaretli ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bulgu, dikey DYY formunun geçerliliğine işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca, analiz bulguları ekonomik büyüme, işgücü maliyeti, ulusal paranın reel değer kazanması, emek verimliliği, nüfusun yaşlanması, kadın istihdamı ve finansal gelişmişlik gibi değişkenlerin DYY üzerinde negatif yönlü; internet kullanım oranı ve sera gazı emisyonları gibi değişkenlerin de pozitif yönlü etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Mekânsal yayılma etkilerine yönelik tahmin sonuçlarına göre de komşu ülkelerdeki işgücü maliyeti, emek verimliliği, kadın istihdamı, sera gazı emisyonları ve finansal gelişmişlikteki artışlar, DYY çekiciliğini azaltırken; komşu ülkelerdeki ulusal paranın reel değer kazanması, nüfusun yaşlanması ve internet penetrasyonundaki artışlar bu çekiciliği artırmaktadır.

Abstract

Since the 1980s, with the increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), interest in the determinants of FDI has increased in the economics literature; however, early studies on this subject focused only on FDI flows between two countries and ignored third country effects. However, when investing in a country, in addition to the characteristics of that country, the conditions of neighbouring countries are also evaluated; FDI flows may have a spatial spillover effect on the FDI attractiveness of neighbouring countries. In this context, in recent years, some studies have gone beyond traditional models and used spatial econometric models. The aim of this study is to analyse the determinants of FDI in European Union countries for the period 2004-2021 by using spatial panel data models, considering third country effects. Using the spatial Durbin model, the estimation results show that the spatial lag coefficient is negatively signed and statistically significant. This finding points to the validity of the vertical form of FDI. Moreover, the findings of the analysis show that variables such as economic growth, labour cost, real currency appreciation, labour productivity, population ageing, female employment, and financial development have negative effects on FDI, whereas variables such as internet penetration rate and greenhouse gas emissions have positive effects. According to the estimation results for spatial spillover effects, increases in labour cost, labour productivity, women’s employment, greenhouse gas emissions, and financial development in neighbouring countries decrease the attractiveness of FDI, whereas increases in real effective exchange rate, population ageing, and internet penetration in neighbouring countries increase this attractiveness.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Akarsu, G., Cafrı, R., Bıdırdı, H. (2026). Avrupa’da Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımın Haritası: MekânsalEkonometrik Bir Yaklaşım. Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Sayı: 44, 129–153. https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2026.44.1747894

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