Makroekonomik Değişkenler ve Yapısal Kırılmalar: Türkiye Ekonomisine İlişkin Kanıtlar

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to examine whether macroeconomic series of Turkey are stationary when the estimated break points are taken into account. In addition, we attempted to determine the existence of significant structural breaks in the selected macroeconomic variables for the specific case of Turkey by employing the procedure by Perron (1997) and Zivot and Andrews (1992). The evidence based on Turkish data reveal that the hypothesis of a unit root cannot be rejected for the selected macroeconomic series of Turkey even if we allow for the presence of an estimated break point in the series, the results of sequential break tests suggest that the majority of structural break points detected coincides with a regime shift (i.e., 1980) in the recent economic history of Turkey. On the other hand, the estimated structural break in some other macroeconomic variables occured in 1994.