KaydedilenlerDerginizi ekleyin

Dergiler / İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi / 2025 / Cilt: 10 Sayı: 28

Dış Ticarette Yeni Korumacılık ve Ticaret Savaşları: Trumpizm

New Protectionism and Trade Wars in Foreign Trade: Trumpism

Erdem Bağcı(BANDIRMA ONYEDİ EYLÜL ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0003-1856-3517
Sayfa
664–678
Yayın Tarihi
2025-10-31
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗
✨

Yapay Zeka Hızlı Bakış & Çıkarımlar

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Çalışma sonucunda, korumacılığın Trump yönetimine özgü bir durum olmadığı tarihsel bir analiz ile ortaya konulmuştur.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:Dış ticarette korumacılık, ithalatı kısıtlamak ve yerel endüstrileri desteklemek için tasarlanmış hükümet politikalarını içermektedir.
📊
Temel Bulgular & Veri:Dış ticarette korumacı önlemler, yerel endüstrileri destekleyerek yurtiçi istihdamın artmasını ve işsizliğin azalmasını sağlarken, aynı zamanda ekonomik verimsizlikler, ticaret savaşları ve tüketiciler için daha yüksek maliyetler gibi bir dizi sorunlara da neden olabilecek riskleri taşır.
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:Çalışma sonucunda, korumacılığın Trump yönetimine özgü bir durum olmadığı tarihsel bir analiz ile ortaya konulmuştur.
🔬Tür:Uygulamalı Anket & Alan Araştırması
📍Kapsam:2025-2029 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Dış ticaret · Tarifeler · Yeni Korumacılık

Özet

Dış ticarette korumacılık, ithalatı kısıtlamak ve yerel endüstrileri desteklemek için tasarlanmış hükümet politikalarını içermektedir. Bu politikalar, yerel ekonomileri küresel rekabetten korumayı amaçlayan tarifeler, kotalar, sübvansiyonlar ve ticaret kısıtlamaları gibi araçların uygulanmasından oluşmaktadır. Dış ticarette korumacı önlemler, yerel endüstrileri destekleyerek yurtiçi istihdamın artmasını ve işsizliğin azalmasını sağlarken, aynı zamanda ekonomik verimsizlikler, ticaret savaşları ve tüketiciler için daha yüksek maliyetler gibi bir dizi sorunlara da neden olabilecek riskleri taşır. Bu çalışmanın iki temel amacından, birincisi dış ticarette korumacılığın Trump yönetimine özgü bir durum olmadığının tarihsel bir analiz ile ortaya konulmasıdır. İkincisi ise Trump’ın 2025-2029 döneminde uygulayacağı dış ticarete korumacı politikaların olası sonuçlarını irdelemektir. Çalışma sonucunda, korumacılığın Trump yönetimine özgü bir durum olmadığı tarihsel bir analiz ile ortaya konulmuştur. Trump’ın 2025-2029 döneminde uygulayacağı dış ticarete korumacı politikaların olası ekonomik sonuçlarının; küresel ölçekte ekonomik büyümede zayıflama, enflasyonda ve işsizlikte yükselişe neden olacağı beklenirken; jeopolitik ve sosyal sonuçları ise küresel ölçekte gerginliklerin yükselişi, bölgesel kutuplaşmanın artışı, milliyetçilik ve küreselleşme karşıtı duygunun yükselişi, silahlanma yarışı ve savaş ortamına zemin hazırlaması beklenmektedir.

Abstract

Protectionism in foreign trade includes government policies designed to restrict imports and support local industries. These policies consist of the implementation of tools such as tariffs, quotas, subsidies, and trade restrictions that aim to protect local economies from global competition. While protectionist measures in foreign trade support local industries and lead to increased domestic employment and reduced unemployment, they also carry the risks of causing several problems such as economic inefficiencies, trade wars, and higher costs for consumers. The two main objectives of this study are to demonstrate through historical analysis that protectionism in foreign trade is not a situation specific to the Trump administration. The second is to examine the possible outcomes of Trump’s protectionist policies in foreign trade that he will implement during the 2025-2029 period. As a result of the study, it is demonstrated through a historical analysis that protectionism is not a situation specific to the Trump administration. The possible economic outcomes of Trump’s protectionist policies in foreign trade that he will implement during the 2025-2029 period are; While it is expected to cause a weakening of economic growth, an increase in inflation and unemployment on a global scale, its geopolitical and social consequences are expected to be the rise of tensions on a global scale, an increase in regional polarization, the rise of nationalism and anti-globalization sentiment, an arms race and paving the way for war..

🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Bağcı, E. (2025). Dış Ticarette Yeni Korumacılık ve Ticaret Savaşları: Trumpizm. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 28, 664–678. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.1666496

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

Kaynakça (73)

  1. Aaronson, S. A. (2019). Data is different, and that’s why the world needs a new approach to governing cross-border data flows. Digital Policy, Regulation and Governance, 21(5), 441–460. https://doi.org/10.1108/DPRG-03-2019-0021
  2. Acharya, V. V., and Richardson, M. (2009). Restoring financial stability: How to repair a failed system. Wiley.
  3. Bagwell, K., and Staiger, R. W. (2002). The economics of the world trading system. MIT Press.
  4. Bairoch, P. (1995). Economics and world history: Myths and paradoxes. University of Chicago Press.
  5. Baldwin, R. (2018). The Great Convergence: Information technology and the new globalization. Harvard University Press.
  6. Baldwin, R. E. (1986). The political economy of U.S. import policy. MIT Press.
  7. Baldwin, R. E. (1989). The political economy of trade policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3(4), 119-135. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1942913
  8. Baldwin, R., and Evenett, S. (2020). COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why Turning Inward Won’t Work. CEPR Press. https://h1.nu/1gMcd
  9. Baldwin, R., and Wyplosz, C. (2009). The economics of European integration. McGraw-Hill.
  10. Bernanke, B. S. (2000). Essays on the Great Depression. Princeton University Press.
  11. Bernanke, B. S. (2004). The great moderation. Speech at the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, D.C., February 20, 2004. https://tinyurl.com/4bjkx9s3
  12. Bhagwati, J. (1988). Protectionism. MIT Press.
  13. Blanchard, O. J. (2005). Macroeconomics. Prentice Hall.
  14. Blinder, A. S. (2013). After the music stopped: The financial crisis, the response, and the work ahead. Penguin Press HC.
  15. Bordo, M. D. (1984). The gold standard: The traditional approach. In M. D. Bordo and A. J. Schwartz (Eds.), A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931 (pp. 23-120). https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11126/c11126.pdf
  16. Bordo, M. D., and Eichengreen, B. (1993). Front matter, a retrospective on the Bretton Woods system. In M. D. Bordo and B. Eichengreen (Eds.), A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform (pp. xi-xiii). University of Chicago Press. https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c6865/c6865.pdf
  17. Bordo, M. D., and Rockoff, H. (1996). The gold standard as a "good housekeeping seal of approval". The Journal of Economic History, 56(2), 389-428. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2123971
  18. Bown, C. P. (2020). How the United States marched the semiconductor industry into its trade war with China. East Asian Economic Review, 24(4), 349–388. https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2020.24.4.384
  19. Bown, C. P. (2021). The US-China trade war and phase one agreement. Peterson Institute for International Economics, Working Paper 21-2. https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/documents/wp21-2.pdf
  20. Chandler, A. D. (1977). The visible hand: The managerial revolution in American Business. Harvard University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvjghwrj
  21. Coleman, D. C. (1980). Mercantilism revisited. The Historical Journal, 23(4), 773–791. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2638725
  22. Dooley, M. P., Folkerts-Landau, D., and Garber, P. (2003). An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system. NBER Working Paper No. 9971. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=447259
  23. Dunning, J. H. (1985). Review of international production and the multinational enterprise. Journal of International Business Studies, 16(1), 171–173. http://www.jstor.org/stable/154490
  24. Eichengreen, B. (1996). Golden fetters: The gold standard and the Great Depression, 1919-1939. Oxford University Press.
  25. Eichengreen, B. (2008). The European economy since 1945: Coordinated capitalism and beyond. Princeton University Press.
  26. Eichengreen, B. (2019). Globalizing capital: A history of the international monetary system (Third Edition). Princeton University Press.
  27. Ekelund, R. B., and Tollison, R. D. (1981). Mercantilism as a rent-seeking society: Economic regulation in historical perspective. Texas A&M University Press.
  28. Evenett, S. J. (2019). Protectionism, state discrimination, and international business since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. Journal of International Business Policy, 2, 9-36. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-019-00021-0
  29. Feinstein, C. H., Temin, P., and Toniolo, G. (2008). The world economy between the wars. Oxford University Press. Findlay, R., and O'Rourke, K. H. (2007). Power and plenty: Trade, war, and the world economy in the second millennium. Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv6zdc8p
  30. Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel lecture: Inflation and unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 85(3), 451-472. https://doi.org/10.1086/260579
  31. Fritz, J., and Evenett, S. J. (2015). The tide turning? Trade, policy, and the G20. Global Trade Alert. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/tide-turns-falling-world-trade-and-g20
  32. Gordon, R. J. (2014). Macroeconomics. Pearson New International Edition.
  33. Gorton, G. (2010). Slapped by the invisible hand: The panic of 2007. Oxford University Press.
  34. Grossman, G. M., and Helpman, E. (1994). Protection for sale. The American Economic Review, 84(4), 833-850. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2118033
  35. Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 228-248. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1832055
  36. Harvey, D. (2007). A brief history of neoliberalism. Oxford University Press.
  37. Heckscher, E. F. (1994). Mercantilism. (First Published in 1935), Routledge.
  38. Hiscox, M. J. (2020). International trade and political conflict: Commerce, coalitions, and mobility. Princeton University Press.
  39. Hoekman, B., and Kostecki, M. (2010). The political economy of the world trading system. Oxford University Press. Third Edition.
  40. Hoekman, B., and Nelson, D. (2020). Rethinking international subsidy rules. The World Economy, 43(12), 3104-3132.http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3630870
  41. Hufbauer, G. C., and Schott, J. J. (2005). NAFTA revisited: Achievements and challenges. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://tinyurl.com/vta9nhdb
  42. Irwin, D. A. (1991). Mercantilism as strategic trade policy: The Anglo-Dutch rivalry for the East India trade. The Journal of Political Economy, 99(6), 1296-1314. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2937731
  43. Irwin, D. A. (1993). Free trade and protection in nineteenth-century Britain and France revisited: A comment on Nye. The Journal of Economic History, 53(1), 146-152. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050700012432
  44. Irwin, D. A. (2011). Peddling protectionism: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression. Princeton University Press.
  45. Irwin, D. A. (2017). Clashing over commerce: A history of US trade policy. University of Chicago Press.
  46. Irwin, D. A. (2020). Free trade under fire. Princeton University Press.
  47. Kennedy, S. (2018). China’s "Made in China 2025" industrial policy. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). https://www.csis.org/analysis/made-china-2025
  48. Kindleberger, C. P. (1975). The world in depression 1929-1939. University of California Press.
  49. Kindleberger, C. P. (1978). Economic response: Comparative studies in trade, finance, and growth. Harvard University Press.
  50. Krugman, P. (1987). Is free trade passé?, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1(2), 131-144. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1942985
  51. Krugman, P. (1992). Geography and trade. MIT Press.
  52. Krugman, P. (1999). Balance sheets, the transfer problem, and financial crises. International Tax and Public Finance, 6(4), 459-472. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1008741113074
  53. Krugman, P. R., Obstfeld, M., and Melitz, M. J. (2022). International economics: Theory and policy. Pearson.
  54. Lane, P. R., and Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2007). The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004. Journal of International Economics, 73(2), 223-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2007.02.003
  55. Maddison, A. (2007). The world economy: A millennial perspective. OECD Publishing.
  56. Magnusson, L. (1994). Mercantilism: The shaping of an economic language. Psychology Press.
  57. Milner, H. V. (1999). The political economy of international trade. Annual Review of Political Science, 2, 91-114 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.91
  58. Möller, A. and Oliver,T.(2014). The United Kingdom and the European Union: What would a “Brexit” mean for the EU and other States around the World? (DGAP-Analyse, 16). Berlin: Forschungsinstitut der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-55608-3
  59. Ndoma, I. (2010). How rich countries got rich … and why poor countries stay poor. Journal of Contemporary Asia, 40(4), 690–693. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2010.507069
  60. O’Rourke, K. H., and Williamson, J. G. (1999). Globalization and history: The evolution of a nineteenth-century Atlantic economy. MIT Press.
  61. Obstfeld, M. (2009). International finance and growth in developing countries: What have we learned? IMF Staff Papers, 56(1), 63-111. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/024/2009/001/article-A003-en.xml
  62. Obstfeld, M., and Taylor, A. M. (2004). Global capital markets: Integration, crisis, and growth. Cambridge University Press.
  63. Reinhart, C. M., and Rogoff, K. S. (2011). This time is different: Eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press.
  64. Rodrik, D. (2011). The globalization paradox: Democracy and the future of the world economy. W. W. Norton and Company.
  65. Rodrik, D. (2017). Straight talk on trade: Ideas for a sane world economy. Princeton University Press.
  66. Shiller, R. J. (2012). The subprime solution: How today's global financial crisis happened, and what to do about it. Princeton University Press.
  67. Smith, A. (2018). An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations (Original work published 1776). Publisher JA.
  68. Stiglitz, J. E. (2017). Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump. Penguin UK.
  69. Temin, P. (1990). Lessons from the Great Depression. MIT Press.
  70. Tooze, A. (2008). The wages of destruction: The making and breaking of the Nazi economy. Penguin press.
  71. Viner, J. (2017). Studies in the theory of international trade. Harper and Brothers. Routledge.
  72. Williamson, J. G. (2006). Globalization and the poor periphery before 1950. MIT Press.
  73. Yergin, D. (1991). The prize: The epic quest for oil, money, and power. Simon and amp; Schuster Publisher.