KaydedilenlerDerginizi ekleyin

Dergiler / International Journal of Environment and Geoinformatics / 2026 / Volume: 12 Issue: 1

Development of Earthquake Early Warning Systems in Marmara Region: A Hybrid Model Utilizing Mosque Loudspeakers

Mehmet Eren(YILDIZ TEKNİK ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İNŞAAT FAKÜLTESİ, HARİTA MÜHENDİSLİĞİ BÖLÜMÜ)0000-0002-8370-8615
Sayfa
—
Yayın Tarihi
2025-03-31
DOI
—
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗
✨

Yapay Zeka Hızlı Bakış & Çıkarımlar

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

In conclusion, a hybrid EEW system with mosque loudspeakers as the main instrument offers a powerful alternative to provide early warning to residents in the Marmara Region.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:The expected major earthquake in the Marmara Sea poses serious risks due to the dense population and important infrastructure systems living in the region.
📊
Temel Bulgular & Veri:In this study, in addition to the existing EEW systems serving the infrastructure, a hybrid early warning model integrated with mosque loudspeakers that have the potential to warn residents is proposed.
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:In conclusion, a hybrid EEW system with mosque loudspeakers as the main instrument offers a powerful alternative to provide early warning to residents in the Marmara Region.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:Earthquake Early Warning System · Marmara Earthquake · Hybrid EEW

Abstract

The expected major earthquake in the Marmara Sea poses serious risks due to the dense population and important infrastructure systems living in the region. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) Systems can play an important role in reducing these risks. In this study, in addition to the existing EEW systems serving the infrastructure, a hybrid early warning model integrated with mosque loudspeakers that have the potential to warn residents is proposed. The system is based on the principle of announcing from mosque loudspeakers within the district borders through the mufti offices by evaluating the seismic data provided by the AFAD infrastructure. Simulations show that the system can be effective especially in residential areas farther than 45 km and that a gain of 4.9 to 42.8 seconds can be achieved in warning time. However, it was determined that warnings given to people in areas closer than 45 km would be ineffective due to the rapid arrival of P waves. The model used has the potential to reduce deaths, especially in densely populated areas, thanks to the wide geographical spread of mosques. The success of the system is directly affected by factors such as power outages, public awareness and communication infrastructure. Therefore, the effectiveness of the system can be increased if it is supported by hybrid models that include additional warning channels such as mobile applications, SMS and TV broadcasts. In addition, the accuracy and applicability of the system should be evaluated in a selected pilot region. In conclusion, a hybrid EEW system with mosque loudspeakers as the main instrument offers a powerful alternative to provide early warning to residents in the Marmara Region.

🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Eren, M. (2025). Development of Earthquake Early Warning Systems in Marmara Region: A Hybrid Model Utilizing Mosque Loudspeakers. International Journal of Environment and Geoinformatics, Volume: 12 Issue: 1. https://ajindex.com/articles/1413101

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

Kaynakça (52)

  1. Akyıldız, M., Ulu, A., Adar, K. (2021). TBDY-2018’deki yerel zemin koşullarının deprem kesit tesirlerine etkisi. DÜMF Mühendislik Dergisi, 12(3), 679-687. https://doi.org/10.24012/dumf.1002217
  2. Allen, R., Melgar, D. (2019). Earthquake early warning: Advances, scientific challenges, and societal needs. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 47(1), 361-388. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060457
  3. Ayeb‐Karlsson, S., Kniveton, D., Cannon, T., Geest, K., Ahmed, I., Derrington, E., … Opondo, D. (2019). I will not go, I cannot go: Cultural and social limitations of disaster preparedness in Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Disasters, 43(4), 752-770. https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12404
  4. Bali, I. (2023). On-site earthquake early warning system as an alternative earthquake mitigation solution in Indonesia. Presunive Civil Engineering Journal, 1(1), 31. https://doi.org/10.33021/pcej.v1i1.4245
  5. Bohnhoff, M., Bulut, F., Dresen, G., Malin, P., Eken, T., Aktar, M. (2013). An earthquake gap south of Istanbul. Nature Communications, 4, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms2999
  6. Chartier, T., Scotti, O., Lyon‐Caen, H., Richard-Dinger, K., Dieterich, J., Shaw, B. (2021). Modelling earthquake rates and associated uncertainties in the Marmara region, Turkey. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 21(8), 2733-2751. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2733-2021
  7. Choo, C., Nadarajah, I. (2013). Early warning information seeking in the 2009 Victorian bushfires. Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, 65(1), 84-97. https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.22952
  8. Colombelli, S., Zollo, A., Festa, G., Kanamori, H. (2012). Early magnitude and potential damage zone estimates for the great Mw 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(22). https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl053923
  9. Cremen, G., Galasso, C., Zuccolo, E. (2022). Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe. Nature Communications, 13, 27807. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27807-2
  10. Dallo, I., Marti, M., Clinton, J., Böse, M., Massin, F., Zaugg, S. (2022). Earthquake early warning in countries where damaging earthquakes only occur every 50 to 150 years – The societal perspective. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 83, 103441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103441
  11. Demirsıkan, İ., Şahin, Ş., Oksum, E. (2022). Marmara Bölgesi P dalga hızı değişimi ve kabuk kalınlığının belirlenmesi. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 10(1), 110-125. https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.935550
  12. Demirsıkan, İ., Şahin, Ş., Öksüm, E. (2019). Determination of seismic P and S wave velocity structure of crust in Central Anatolia. Pamukkale University Journal of Engineering Sciences, 25(6), 775-784. https://doi.org/10.5505/pajes.2018.45548
  13. El-Aal, A., Abdelhafiez, H., Saadalla, H., Soliman, M. (2020). A homogenous moment magnitude and local magnitude scaling relation for earthquakes in Egypt. NRIAG Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics, 9(1), 532-538. https://doi.org/10.1080/20909977.2020.1794445
  14. Eren, M. (2025). Transmission of earthquake early warning message through a different channel: Karlıova case study. Journal of the Geological Society of India. (Accepted manuscript).
  15. Ersoy, Ş., Koçak, A. (2015). Disasters and earthquake preparedness of children and schools in Istanbul, Turkey. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 7(4), 1307-1336. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2015.1060637
  16. Foesel, A. (2025). Learning physics while monitoring vibrations of the Earth-Investigating seismic phenomena by using a Raspberry Pi. European Journal of Physics, 46(2), 025802. https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6404/ada1af
  17. Gasperini, P. (2024). Comment on “A seismic moment magnitude scale” by Ranjit Das, Mukat Lal Sharma, Hans Raj Wason, Deepankar Choudhury, and Gabriel Gonzalez. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(4), 2270-2274. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230230
  18. Gazioğlu, C., Gökaşan, E., Algan, O., Yücel, Z., Tok, B., Doğan, E. (2002). Morphologic features of the Marmara Sea from multi-beam data. Marine Geology, 190(1-2), 397–420. doi:10.1016/s0025-3227(02)00356-0
  19. Gokasan, E., Ustaömer, T., Gazioglu, C., Yucel, Z. Y., Öztürk, K., Tur, H., … Tok, B. (2003). Morpho-tectonic evolution of the Marmara Sea inferred from multi-beam bathymetric and seismic data. Geo-Marine Letters, 23(1), 19–33. doi:10.1007/s00367-003-0120-7
  20. Gök, E., Erdem, M., Özer, Ç. (2020). Kocaeli ve çevresi için Coulomb gerilme analizi. Mühendislik Bilimleri ve Tasarım Dergisi, 8(1), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.21923/jesd.492508
  21. Güler, E., Canbaz, M. (2020). Yapıların deprem riskinin sokak tarama yöntemi ile belirlenmesi: Sivrihisar örneği. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik ve Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, 28(3), 227-234. https://doi.org/10.31796/ogummf.736221
  22. Hsu, T., Wang, H., Lin, P., Lin, C., Kuo, C., Wen, K. (2016). Performance of the NCREE's on‐site warning system during the 5 February 2016 Mw 6.53 Meinong earthquake. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(17), 8954-8959. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl069372
  23. Hsu, T., Lin, P., Wang, H., Chiang, H., Chang, Y., Kuo, C., … Wen, K. (2018). Comparing the performance of the NEEWS earthquake early warning system against the CWB system during the 6 February 2018 Mw 6.2 Hualien earthquake. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(12), 6001-6007. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078079
  24. Işık, E., Karaşin, İ., Ulu, A. (2020). Eğimli zeminlerde inşa edilen betonarme binaların deprem davranışlarının incelenmesi. European Journal of Science and Technology. https://doi.org/10.31590/ejosat.757763
  25. Jenkins, M., McBride, S., Morgoch, M., Smith, H. (2022). Considerations for creating equitable and inclusive communication campaigns associated with ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the USA. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 31(1), 79-91. https://doi.org/10.1108/dpm-03-2021-0090
  26. Kale, Ö. (2018). Kesirsel mertebeli şiddet ölçülerinin olasılıksal sismik talep modellerinde kullanımının tek serbestlik dereceli sistemlerle değerlendirilmesi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 22(Special), 427. https://doi.org/10.19113/sdufbed.45936
  27. Kanamori, H. (1979). The energy release in great earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 82, 2981-2987. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB082i020p02981
  28. Kodera, Y., Saitou, J., Hayashimoto, N., Adachi, S., Morimoto, M., Nishimae, Y., … Hoshiba, M. (2016). Earthquake early warning for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake: Performance evaluation of the current system and the next-generation methods of the Japan Meteorological Agency. Earth, Planets and Space, 68(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-016-0567-1
  29. Kong, Q., Allen, R., Schreier, L., Kwon, Y. (2016). MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond. Science Advances, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501055
  30. Martínez‐Garzón, P., Durand, V., Bentz, S., Kwiatek, G., Dresen, G., Turkmen, T., … Bohnhoff, M. (2021). Near-fault monitoring reveals combined seismic and slow activation of a fault branch within the Istanbul–Marmara seismic gap in northwest Turkey. Seismological Research Letters, 92(6), 3743-3756. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220210047
  31. Mert, A., Fahjan, Y., Pinar, A., Hutchings, L.(2014). Marmara bölgesinde ampirik Green fonksiyon yöntemiyle deprem benzeşimlerinin elde edilmesi. Yerbilimleri/Hacettepe Üniversitesi Yerbilimleri Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi Dergisi, 35(1), 141. https://doi.org/10.17824/huyuamd.43325
  32. Minson, S., Meier, M., Baltay, A., Hanks, T., Cochran, E. (2018). The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates. Science Advances, 4(3). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaq0504
  33. Minson, S., Baltay, A., Cochran, E., Hanks, T., Page, M., McBride, S., … Meier, M. (2019). The limits of earthquake early warning accuracy and best alerting strategy. Scientific Reports, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-39384-y
  34. Nakamura, Y. (1988, August). On the Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System (UrEDAS). In Proceedings of the 9th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering (Vol. 7, pp. 673-678).
  35. Nakayachi, K., Becker, J., Potter, S., Dixon, M. (2019). Residents’ reactions to earthquake early warnings in Japan. Risk Analysis, 39(8), 1723-1740. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13306
  36. Noda, S., Iwata, N. (2023). Improvement in rapidness of earthquake early warning using ocean bottom seismic data. Quarterly Report of RTRI, 64(1), 33-36. https://doi.org/10.2219/rtriqr.64.1_33
  37. Picozzi, M., Zollo, A., Brondi, P., Colombelli, S., Elia, L., Martino, C. (2015). Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 120(4), 2446-2465. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jb011669
  38. Prasanna, R., Chandrakumar, C., Nandana, R., Holden, C., Punchihewa, A., Becker, J., … Tan, M. (2022). “saving precious seconds”—a novel approach to implementing a low-cost earthquake early warning system with node-level detection and alert generation. Informatics, 9(1), 25.
  39. Rudyanto, A. (2023). Unveiling the potential: Preliminary result on an AI-based onsite earthquake early warning system deployment in Denpasar City. E3S Web of Conferences, 464, 02002. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202346402002
  40. Small, D., Melgar, D. (2021). Geodetic coupling models as constraints on stochastic earthquake ruptures: An example application to PTHA in Cascadia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jb021149
  41. Stankiewicz, J., Bindi, D., Oth, A., Parolai, S. (2013). Designing efficient earthquake early warning systems: Case study of Almaty, Kazakhstan. Journal of Seismology, 17(4), 1125-1137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-013-9381-4
  42. Şahin, Y., Irmak, T., Livaoğlu, H., Yavuz, E. (2018). The relationship of Mw-Ml conversion for the earthquakes of the Marmara Region. Uygulamalı Yerbilimleri Dergisi, 17(2), 193-201. https://doi.org/10.30706/uybd.363235
  43. Şentürk, M., Aktuğ, B. (2020). Displacement-based earthquake early warning systems. Doğal Afetler ve Çevre Dergisi, 6(2), 218-227. https://doi.org/10.21324/dacd.574177
  44. Tajima, F., Hayashida, T. (2018). Earthquake early warning: What does “seconds before a strong hit” mean? Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-018-0221-6
  45. Takemoto, S., Shibuya, N., Kuek, S., Keeley, A., Yarina, L. (2019). Information and communication technology for disaster risk management in Japan. https://doi.org/10.1596/32797 Tan, M., Becker, J., Stock, K., Prasanna, R., Brown, A., Kenney, C., … Lambie, E. (2022). Understanding the social aspects of earthquake early warning: A literature review. Frontiers in Communication, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fcomm.2022.939242
  46. Tripti, C., Jibukumar, M. (2021). An enhancement for IEEE 802.11p to provision quality of service with context-aware channel access for the forward collision avoidance application in vehicular ad hoc network. Sensors, 21(20), 6937. https://doi.org/10.3390/s21206937 URL1: https://stratejigelistirme.diyanet.gov.tr/Documents/2_2_istatistiki_bolge_birimleri_siniflamasina_gore_cami_sayisi_2023.xls
  47. URL 2: https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/event-detail/70819
  48. Uysal, F., Bağriaçik, B., Yildiz, A. (2018). Yumuşak zemin model parametrelerinin zemin davranışına etkisi. Çukurova Üniversitesi Mühendislik-Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, 33(1), 97-106. https://doi.org/10.21605/cukurovaummfd.420681
  49. Xu, L. (2023). The overall-subshear and multi-segment rupture of the 2023 Mw 7.8 Kahramanmaraş, Turkey earthquake in millennia supercycle. Communications Earth Environment, 4(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01030-x
  50. Zhang, M., Qiao, X., Seyler, B., Di, B., Wang, Y., Ya, T. (2021). Brief communication: Effective earthquake early warning systems: Appropriate messaging and public awareness roles. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 21(10), 3243-3250. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3243-2021
  51. Zhou, C., Zheng, S., Ye, Y., Li, P. (2017). Research on application of hospital earthquake early warning system. https://doi.org/10.2991/wartia-17.2017.38
  52. Zollo, A., Amoroso, O., Lancieri, M., Wu, Y., Kanamori, H. (2010). A threshold-based earthquake early warning using dense accelerometer networks. Geophysical Journal International, 183(2), 963-974. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04765.x