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Dergiler / Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 31 Sayı: 1

İklim politikası belirsizliğinin tarımsal yatırımlara etkisi

The impact of climate policy uncertainty on agricultural investments

Veysel Karagöl(YÜZÜNCÜ YIL ÜNİVERSİTESİ, ERCİŞ İŞLETME FAKÜLTESİ)0000-0001-9939-0173
Ayşegül Şahin(ANADOLU ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-4278-0266
Sayfa
91–103
Yayın Tarihi
2025-06-30
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Bulgular: NARDL modelinin sonuçlarına göre, iklim politikası belirsizliğindeki artışlar uzun dönemde tarımsal yatırımları azaltmaktadır.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:Amaç: Tarım sektörü hem sürdürülebilir kalkınma hem de gıda güvenliği açısından stratejik bir öneme sahiptir.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Bu çalışmanın amacı, ABD’de iklim politikası belirsizliği ile tarımsal yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi 1995-2022 dönemi için incelemektir.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Bulgular: NARDL modelinin sonuçlarına göre, iklim politikası belirsizliğindeki artışlar uzun dönemde tarımsal yatırımları azaltmaktadır.
🔬Tür:Literatür & Derleme Çalışması
📍Kapsam:2022 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:İklim değişikliği · iklim politikası belirsizliği · tarım

Özet

Amaç: Tarım sektörü hem sürdürülebilir kalkınma hem de gıda güvenliği açısından stratejik bir öneme sahiptir. Ancak, iklim değişikliği ve buna bağlı olarak artan fiziksel ve politik belirsizlikler, bu sektördeki yatırımları riske atmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ABD’de iklim politikası belirsizliği ile tarımsal yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkiyi 1995-2022 dönemi için incelemektir. Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: İklim politikası belirsizliği ile tarımsal yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkileri analiz etmek için doğrusal olmayan ARDL yöntemi ve asimetrik nedensellik testi kullanılmaktadır. Nonlinear yöntemler, açıklayıcı değişkenlerin pozitif ve negatif değişimlerini ayrı ayrı değerlendirerek bağımlı değişken üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri ölçmeyi sağlamaktadır. Bulgular: NARDL modelinin sonuçlarına göre, iklim politikası belirsizliğindeki artışlar uzun dönemde tarımsal yatırımları azaltmaktadır. Asimetrik nedensellik testi, NARDL modeli tarafından tanımlanan asimetrik ilişkiler için ek kanıt sağlamaktadır. İklim politikası belirsizliğinin pozitif şokundan tarımsal yatırımların negatif şokuna doğru istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir asimetrik nedensellik vardır. Özgünlük/Değer: Çalışma, iklim politikası belirsizliğinin yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisini tarım sektörü açısından inceleyerek literatürdeki boşluğu doldurmaktadır. Bu, tarım sektörü gibi iklime oldukça duyarlı bir alanda, söz konusu ilişkinin uzun vadeli sonuçlarını anlamaya yönelik yeni bir perspektif sağlamaktadır.

Abstract

Purpose: The agricultural sector is strategically important for sustainable development and food security. However, climate change and the increasing physical and political uncertainties that come with it put investments in this sector at risk. This study examines the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and agricultural investments in the USA from 1995-2022. Design/Methodology/Approach: Symmetric and asymmetric causality tests, as well as the Nonlinear ARDL method are used to analyze the relationships between variables. Nonlinear methods allow us to measure asymmetric effects on the dependent variable by evaluating the positive and negative changes of the explanatory variables separately. Findings: No symmetric causality relationship is found between the variables. However, there is a statistically significant asymmetric causality from the positive shock of climate policy uncertainty to the negative shock of agricultural investments. The results of the NARDL model robust this finding. Accordingly, increases in climate policy uncertainty reduce agricultural investments in the long run. Originality/Value: This study fills the gap in the literature by examining the impact of climate policy uncertainty on investments in the agricultural sector. This provides a new perspective to understand the long-term consequences of this relationship in a highly climate-sensitive area such as the agricultural sector.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Karagöl, V., Şahin, A. (2025). İklim politikası belirsizliğinin tarımsal yatırımlara etkisi. Tarım Ekonomisi Dergisi, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 1, 91–103. https://doi.org/10.24181/tarekoder.1628954

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