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Dergiler / Marine Science and Technology Bulletin / 2021 / Volume: 10 Issue: 4

Forecasting Shanghai Containerized Freight Index by Using Time Series Models

Kaan Koyuncu(Muğla Sıtkı Koçman University, Department of Transport Services, 48900 Muğla, Turkey)0000-0001-7984-692X
Leyla Tavacıoğlu(Istanbul Technical University, Maritime Faculty, Department of Basic Sciences, 34940 Istanbul, Turkey)0000-0002-9919-8226
Sayfa
—
Yayın Tarihi
2021-12-29
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Results demonstrate that the increase will continue without losing momentum.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:Recently, the container shipping industry has become unpredictable due to volatility and major events affecting the maritime sector.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:At the same time, approaches to estimating container freight rates using econometric and time series modelling have become very important.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Results demonstrate that the increase will continue without losing momentum.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:Genişletilmiş Akademik Örneklem
⚙️Değişkenler:Shanghai Containerized Freight Index · Volatility · Freight rates

Abstract

Recently, the container shipping industry has become unpredictable due to volatility and major events affecting the maritime sector. At the same time, approaches to estimating container freight rates using econometric and time series modelling have become very important. Therefore, in this paper, different time-series models have been explored that are related to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI). SMA, EWMA, and, SES, Holt Winter method are used to describe the data and model. Afterward, the Holt Winter method and SARIMA was applied to model and predict the SCFI index. MAPE, RMSE, AIC, BIC are used to measure the performances of the models and predictions. We observe that the SARIMA model provides comparatively better results than the existing freight rate forecasting models while performing short-term forecasts on a monthly rate. Results demonstrate that the increase will continue without losing momentum.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Koyuncu, K., Tavacıoğlu, L. (2021). Forecasting Shanghai Containerized Freight Index by Using Time Series Models. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin, Volume: 10 Issue: 4. https://doi.org/10.33714/masteb.1024663

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