KaydedilenlerDerginizi ekleyin

Dergiler / Politik Ekonomik Kuram / 2026 / Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2

Savunma Harcamaları ve Gelir Dağılımı: Orta Gelirli Ekonomiler Üzerine Dinamik Bir Analiz

Defence Expenditures and Income Distribution: Dynamic Evidence from Middle-Income Economies

Emine Ayranci Bağrıaçık(OSMANİYE KORKUT ATA ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0001-6258-4214
Sayfa
535–549
Yayın Tarihi
2026-06-25
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗
✨

Yapay Zeka Hızlı Bakış & Çıkarımlar

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Elde edilen bulgular, savunma harcamalarının gelir dağılımı üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:Gelir eşitsizliği, zaman içinde derinleşen ve kamu müdahalesinin gerekçesini güçlendiren küresel bir sorun haline gelmiştir.
📊
Temel Bulgular & Veri:Savunma harcamaları; diğer kamu harcamaları, bütçe dengesi, istihdam, borç yükü ve çevresel sürdürülebilirlik üzerinde önemli etkiler yaratmakta, dolayısıyla gelir dağılımını da etkilemesi beklenmektedir.
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:Elde edilen bulgular, savunma harcamalarının gelir dağılımı üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.
🔬Tür:Araştırma Makalesi
📍Kapsam:2010–2020 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Gelir Dağılımı · Savunma Harcamaları · Sistem GMM

Özet

Gelir eşitsizliği, zaman içinde derinleşen ve kamu müdahalesinin gerekçesini güçlendiren küresel bir sorun haline gelmiştir. Aynı zamanda, ulusal güvenlik kaygıları dünya genelinde giderek daha belirgin bir hal almaktadır. Bu bağlamda savunma harcamaları, maliye politikasının önemli bir aracını temsil etmektedir. Savunma harcamaları; diğer kamu harcamaları, bütçe dengesi, istihdam, borç yükü ve çevresel sürdürülebilirlik üzerinde önemli etkiler yaratmakta, dolayısıyla gelir dağılımını da etkilemesi beklenmektedir. Savunma harcaması yalnızca bir güvenlik meselesi değil, aynı zamanda gelir dağılımını şekillendiren bir sosyal refah unsuru olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Bu durum, özellikle kalıcı kurumsal ve ekonomik kırılganlıklarla karakterize edilen orta gelirli ülkelerde daha belirgin bir hal almaktadır. Bu çerçevede çalışma, 2010–2020 dönemini kapsayan 42 orta gelirli ülkeden oluşan dinamik bir panelde savunma harcamalarının gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analizde iki aşamalı Sistem Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Metodu (System GMM) kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca, elde edilen sonuçların güvenilirliğini artırmak amacıyla Driskoll-Kraay dirençli standart hatalar tahmincisi ile sağlamlık kontrolü yapılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, savunma harcamalarının gelir dağılımı üzerinde negatif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Abstract

Income inequality is a global concern that has been deepening over time and reinforces the rationale for public intervention. At the same time, national security concerns have become increasingly prominent across countries. In this context, defence expenditures represent an important instrument of fiscal policy. Defence spending exerts significant effects on other public expenditures, budget balance, employment, debt burden, and environmental sustainability, and thus is also expected to influence income distribution. Defence expenditure is not solely a security issue; it also emerges as a social welfare factor that shapes income distribution. This is especially evident in middle-income countries characterized by persistent institutional and economic vulnerabilities. Within this framework, the study aims to examine the effect of defence expenditure on income distribution in a dynamic panel of 42 middle- income countries over the period 2010–2020. The analysis employs the two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (System GMM). Furthermore, the Driscoll-Kraay standard errors estimator is utilized to ensure the robustness of the findings. The findings indicate that defence spending has a negative, statistically significant, and robust effect on income distribution.

🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Bağrıaçık, E. A. (2026). Savunma Harcamaları ve Gelir Dağılımı: Orta Gelirli Ekonomiler Üzerine Dinamik Bir Analiz. Politik Ekonomik Kuram, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 535–549. https://doi.org/10.30586/pek.1886284

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

Kaynakça (53)

  1. Aktaş, E. E., & Dokuzoğlu, S. (2026). Moderating effect of terrorism in the income inequality-military expenditure nexus: Evidence from transition economies. Eastern European Economics, 64(2), 295–323. https://doi.org/10.1080/00128775.2025.246075
  2. Ali, H. E., & Galbraith, J. K. (2003). Military expenditures and inequality: Empirical evidence from global data (UTIP Working Paper No. 24). University of Texas Inequality Project, The University of Texas at Austin.
  3. Ali, H. E., & Solarin, S. A. (2020). Military spending, corruption, and the welfare consequences. Defence and Peace Economics, 31(6), 677–691. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2019.1567181.
  4. Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277-297.
  5. Ayyash, M. (2025). Income inequality dynamics in ASEAN-5: A panel data analysis of macroeconomic determinants. Journal of Economic Structures.
  6. Baryshnikova, N. V., & Yarashov, S. (2025). Guardians of (In) Equality: Unmasking the Role of Military Spending in Shaping Income Inequality. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 25(1), 331-374.
  7. Beirne, J., Mumtaz, H., Park, D., Uddin, G. S., & Theophilopoulou, A. (2025). Who benefits from increases in military spending? An empirical analysis. arXiv preprint, arXiv:2511.08218.
  8. Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
  9. Chancel, L., Gómez-Carrera, R., Moshrif, R., & Piketty, T. (2026). World inequality report 2026. World Inequality Lab.
  10. Chletsos, M., & Roupakias, S. (2020). The effect of military spending on income inequality: Evidence from NATO countries. Empirical Economics, 58(3), 1305–1337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1576-7
  11. d’Agostino, G., Dunne, J. P., Lorusso, M., & Pieroni, L. (2020). Military spending, corruption, persistence and long run growth. Defence and Peace Economics, 31(4), 423–433. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2020.1751503
  12. Dincer, O. C., & Gunalp, B. (2012). Corruption and income inequality in the United States. Contemporary Economic Policy, 30(2), 283-292.
  13. Doumbia, D., & Kinda, T. (2019). Reallocating public spending to reduce income inequality: Can it work? (Working Paper No. WP/19/188). International Monetary Fund.
  14. Driscoll, J. C. & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(4), 549–560.
  15. Ecker, S., Gray Molina, G., Jensen, L., & Ortiz-Juarez, E. (2023). The human cost of inaction: Poverty, social protection and debt servicing, 2020–2023 (Development Futures Series No. 61). United Nations Development Programme. https://www.undp.org/publications/human-cost-inaction-poverty-social-protection-and-debt-servicing-2020-2023
  16. Elveren, A. Y. (2022). Military spending and profit rate: A circuit of capital model with a military sector. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(1), 59–76. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2020.1832394
  17. Elveren, A. Y. (2024). Militarization, gender inequality, and growth: A feminist-Kaleckian model. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 47(2), 245–262. https://doi.org/10.1080/01603477.2023.2201823
  18. Elveren, A. Y. (2025). Heterodox economics of military spending. Routledge.
  19. Elveren, A. Y., Töngür, Ü., & Myers, T. (2023). Military spending and economic growth: A post-Keynesian model. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 18(2), 51–64. https://doi.org/10.15355/epsj.18.2.51
  20. Fan, H., Liu, W., & Coyte, P. C. (2017). Do Military Expenditures Crowd-Out Health Expenditures? Evidence from Around the World, 2000-2013. Defence and Peace Economics, 29(7), 766–79. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2017.1303303.
  21. García Serrador, A., Sarasa-Flores, D., & Ulloa Ariza, C. (2025). Buy guns or buy roses? EU defence spending fiscal multipliers (BBVA Research Working Paper). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5338966
  22. Graham, J. C., & Mueller, D. (2019). Military expenditures and income inequality among a panel of OECD countries in the post-Cold War era, 1990–2007. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 25(1), 20180016. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2018-0016
  23. Groot, L., & van den Berg, V. (2009). Inequality in military expenditures and the Samuelson rule. Defence and Peace Economics, 20(1), 43–67. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690801972089
  24. Hansen, L. P. (1982). Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators. Econometrica, 50(4), 1029-1054.
  25. Henderson, E. A. (1998). Military spending and poverty. The Journal of Politics, 60(2), 503–520. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2647920
  26. Hudson, J., & Jones, P. (2008). Corruption and military expenditure: At ‘no cost to the King’. Defence and Peace Economics, 19(6), 387–403. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690801962270
  27. Isiaka, A., Mihailov, A. & Razzu, G. Government spending reallocations and inequality: evidence from middle-income countries. Empirical Economics, 69, 1229–1257. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-025-02768-3
  28. Jaumotte, F., Lall, S., & Papageorgiou, C. (2013). Rising income inequality: Technology, or trade and financial globalization? IMF Economic Review, 61(2), 271–309.
  29. Kentor, J., Clark, R., & Jorgenson, A. (2023). The hidden cost of global economic integration: How foreign investment drives military expenditures. World Development, 161, 106105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.106105
  30. Kentor, J., Jorgenson, A. K., & Kick, E. L. (2012). The “new” military and income inequality: A cross-national analysis. Social Science Research, 41(3), 514–526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2011.12.005
  31. Knight, M., Loayza, N., & Villanueva, D. (1996). The peace dividend: Military spending cuts and economic growth (Policy Research Working Paper No. 1577). World Bank.
  32. Kunawotor, M. E., Bokpin, G. A., & Barnor, C. (2020). Drivers of income inequality in Africa: Does institutional quality matter? African Development Review, 1(12), 1–12.
  33. Lee, H.-S. (2024). Inequality and public opinion on military spending in the United States. World Affairs, 187(4), 448–461. https://doi.org/10.1002/waf2.12049
  34. Lin, E. S., Ali, H. E., & Lu, Y. L. (2015). Does military spending crowd out social welfare expenditures? Evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 33–48. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2013.848576
  35. Mbewe, G., Zhao, Y., & Tang, C. (2026). Does military expenditure weaken the effect of education expenditure in reducing income inequality? evidence from NATO countries. International Economics and Economic Policy, 23(1), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-025-00704-5
  36. Musayev, V. (2016). Externalities in military spending and growth: The role of natural resources as a channel through conflict. Defence and Peace Economics, 27(3), 378–391. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2014.994833
  37. Newman, E. (2022). Covid-19: A human security analysis. Global Society, 36(4), 431-454. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600826.2021.2010034
  38. Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic Models with Fixed Effects. Econometrica, 46(6), 1417-1426.
  39. Oxenstierna, S. (2016). Russia’s defense spending and the economic decline. Journal of Eurasian Studies, 7(1), 60–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euras.2015.06.001
  40. Peltier, H. (2025). The relationship between military spending & inequality: A review. Dædalus, 154(4), 192-213.
  41. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-section dependence in panels. University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, No. 0435.
  42. Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
  43. Romero-Asparrín, O., Caja-Alvarez, J., Gaspar-Montes, D., & Calle-Arancibia, M. (2025). The effect of corruption on income inequality: A dynamic panel data analysis for Latin America. Revista Economía y Política, 42, 1–22.
  44. Roodman, D. (2009). How to Do Xtabond2: An Introduction to Difference and System GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1), 86-136.
  45. Russett, B. M. (1969). Who pays for defense? American Political Science Review, 63(2), 412–426. https://doi.org/10.2307/1954697
  46. Salti, N. (2015). Income inequality and the composition of public debt. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(5), 821–837. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-01-2014-0015
  47. Samuelson, P. A. (1954). The pure theory of public expenditure. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 36(4), 387–389. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925895
  48. Töngür, Ü., & Elveren, A. Y. (2015). Military expenditures, income inequality, welfare and political regimes: A dynamic panel data analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 49–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2013.848577.
  49. United Nations. (2025). The security we need: Rebalancing defence spending for a sustainable and peaceful future (Report of the Secretary-General). United Nations.
  50. Windmeijer, F. (2005). A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators. Journal of Econometrics, 126(1), 25–51. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2004.02.005
  51. World Bank. (2025). World Development Indicators [Data set]. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators Retrieved November, 2025.
  52. Wu, S.-F., & Lee, C.-T. (2025). The impact of military spending on income inequality [Early view]. Bulletin of Economic Research, 0, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1111/boer.70036
  53. Zhang, C., Tian, N., & Zhou, L. (2017). Does military spending promote social welfare? A comparative analysis of the BRICS and G7 countries. Defence and Peace Economics, 28(6), 686–706. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2016.1228249