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Dergiler / Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi / 2026 / Sayı: 74

Belirsizlikler Türkiye’deki enflasyon beklentilerini etkiler mi?

Do uncertainties affect inflation expectations in Türkiye?

Oğuz Tümtürk(ORDU ÜNİVERSİTESİ, ÜNYE İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ)0000-0002-1935-0858
Sayfa
43–53
Yayın Tarihi
2026-08-31
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Son olarak, pozitif bir belirsizlik şokunun para politikası üzerindeki etkisi istatistiki olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisinde yaşanan iktisadi belirsizliklerin enflasyon beklentileri üzerindeki etkisini, 2015:M01 - 2024:M12 dönemini kapsayan verilerle Yapısal Vektör Otoregresyon (SVAR) yöntemi kullanarak ampirik olarak analiz etmektedir.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:Belirsizlikler, Kilic ve Ballı (2024) tarafından önerilen “Ekonomik Ülkeye Özgü Belirsizlik Endeksi” verisi ile temsil edilmiştir.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Son olarak, pozitif bir belirsizlik şokunun para politikası üzerindeki etkisi istatistiki olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur.
🔬Tür:Uygulamalı Anket & Alan Araştırması
📍Kapsam:2015 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Belirsizlik · enflasyon beklentileri · yapısal VAR

Özet

Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisinde yaşanan iktisadi belirsizliklerin enflasyon beklentileri üzerindeki etkisini, 2015:M01 - 2024:M12 dönemini kapsayan verilerle Yapısal Vektör Otoregresyon (SVAR) yöntemi kullanarak ampirik olarak analiz etmektedir. Belirsizlikler, Kilic ve Ballı (2024) tarafından önerilen “Ekonomik Ülkeye Özgü Belirsizlik Endeksi” verisi ile temsil edilmiştir. Belirsizlik şoklarının enflasyon beklentileri üzerindeki teorik yönünün belirsiz olması nedeniyle, net etkinin yönünü belirlemek için ülkeye özgü ampirik kanıtlar büyük önem taşımaktadır. Temel spesifikasyonda piyasa katılımcılarına ait enflasyon beklentileri kullanılırken; hanehalkı ve reel sektör enflasyon beklentileri de karşılaştırmalı bir değerlendirme sunmak amacıyla analize dahil edilmiştir. Değişkenler arası dinamik etkileşimlerin literatürle uyumlu ortogonal tanımlama varsayımlarıyla belirlendiği bu çalışmada, piyasa katılımcılarının enflasyon beklentilerinin pozitif bir belirsizlik şoku sonucu arttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuç, bir belirsizlik şoku sonrasında ortaya çıkan arz yönlü etkilerin baskınlığını vurgulamaktadır. Ayrıca, reel sektör firmaları ile hanehalklarının enflasyon beklentileri bir belirsizlik şoku sonrasında önemli ölçüde ayrışmaktadır. Bu farklılık, hanehalklarının tüketim kanalına karşı daha hassas olmalarına, firmaların ise üretim ve maliyet kanallarına daha fazla odaklanmalarına dayandırılabilir. Ek olarak, pozitif bir belirsizlik şoku sanayi üretiminde istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir daralmaya yol açmaktadır. Bu bulgu, arz yönlü “yatırım gecikmeleri” ve talep yönlü “ihtiyati tasarruf” kanallarıyla tutarlıdır. Son olarak, pozitif bir belirsizlik şokunun para politikası üzerindeki etkisi istatistiki olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur.

Abstract

This study empirically analyzes the impact of economic uncertainties on inflation expectations in Türkiye using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework covering the period 2015:M01 to 2024:M12. Uncertainties are proxied by the “Economic Country-Specific Uncertainty Index” proposed by Kilic and Balli (2024). Given that the theoretical direction of uncertainty shocks on inflation expectations remains ambiguous, country-specific empirical evidence is essential to establish the direction of the net effect. In the baseline specification, while inflation expectations from market participants are employed, expectations from both households and the real sector are also incorporated for a comparative assessment. In the study where the dynamic interactions between variables are determined by orthogonal identification assumptions in line with past literature, we concluded that the inflation expectations of market participants increase with a positive uncertainty shock. This result highlights the predominance of supply-side effects following an uncertainty shock. Furthermore, the inflation expectations of real sector firms and households diverge significantly. This discrepancy can be attributed to the fact that households are more sensitive to the consumption channel, whereas firms focus primarily on production and cost channels. Additionally, a positive uncertainty shock induces a statistically significant contraction in industrial production. This finding is consistent with the supply-side “investment delays” and demand-side “precautionary savings” channels. Finally, the impact of a positive uncertainty shock on monetary policy is found to be statistically insignificant.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Tümtürk, O. (2026). Belirsizlikler Türkiye’deki enflasyon beklentilerini etkiler mi?. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Sayı: 74, 43–53. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1861685

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