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Dergiler / Journal of International Environmental Application and Science / 2026 / Volume: 21 Issue: 3

Global Forecasting of Multiple Short Water-Quality Time Series Across River, Estuary, and Lagoon Monitoring Stations

Chioma Howard(University of Africa, Toru-Orua, Bayelsa State, Nigeria.)0009-0005-4129-1291
Love Nnoka(Captain Elechi Amadi Polytechnic, Rumuola, Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria)
Sayfa
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Yayın Tarihi
2026-10-02
DOI
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Monitoring agencies should retain persistence as a safeguard, deploy pooled forecasts only after subgroup-specific validation, and prioritize hydrological, tidal, meteorological, and pollution-source covariates for lagoon and extreme-event warning systems.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:Abstract Environmental early-warning systems are most difficult to develop where contamination risks are substantial but monitoring histories are short.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:The open dataset contains 26 variables measured monthly during 2021 at 10 Niger Delta River, estuary, and lagoon stations, yielding 260 twelve-observation series and 3,120 measurements.
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Sonuç & Katkı:Monitoring agencies should retain persistence as a safeguard, deploy pooled forecasts only after subgroup-specific validation, and prioritize hydrological, tidal, meteorological, and pollution-source covariates for lagoon and extreme-event warning systems.
🔬Tür:Laboratuvar & Saha Deneyi
📍Kapsam:2021 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Niger Delta · partial pooling · ridge regression

Abstract

Abstract Environmental early-warning systems are most difficult to develop where contamination risks are substantial but monitoring histories are short. This study evaluates whether global forecasting can overcome that constraint by pooling temporal information across water-quality variables, stations, and ecosystems. The open dataset contains 26 variables measured monthly during 2021 at 10 Niger Delta River, estuary, and lagoon stations, yielding 260 twelve-observation series and 3,120 measurements. A ridge-regularized global autoregression incorporating two lags, recent change, annual harmonics, and variable and ecosystem indicators was compared with persistence and separately estimated local AR(1) models. Four expanding forecast origins produced 1,040 leakage-resistant one-month-ahead predictions. Performance was evaluated using mean absolute scaled error (MASE), relative MAE, log-scale diagnostics, calibration, clustered bootstrap intervals, trimming, subgroup analysis, and leave-one-station-out sensitivity. Local AR(1) achieved the lowest aggregate MASE (1.7546), but its improvement over persistence (1.7720) was small and uncertain; global ridge was virtually identical to persistence (1.7721). The 95% bootstrap intervals included zero for both fitted-model differences. Nevertheless, global ridge improved 14 of 26 variables, reduced Pb, Hg, Zn, and Cu errors substantially, performed best in rivers, improved estuary forecasts, and lowered root mean squared log error by approximately 6%. These gains were offset by poorer lagoon forecasts and weak performance for several irregular variables, while calibration revealed compression of extreme observations. The study contributes a reproducible demonstration that partial pooling is an ecosystem- and variable-dependent resource rather than a universal remedy for short records. Monitoring agencies should retain persistence as a safeguard, deploy pooled forecasts only after subgroup-specific validation, and prioritize hydrological, tidal, meteorological, and pollution-source covariates for lagoon and extreme-event warning systems.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Howard, C., Nnoka, L. (2026). Global Forecasting of Multiple Short Water-Quality Time Series Across River, Estuary, and Lagoon Monitoring Stations. Journal of International Environmental Application and Science, Volume: 21 Issue: 3. https://ajindex.com/articles/1112201

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Kaynakça (21)

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