KaydedilenlerDerginizi ekleyin

Dergiler / Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2

Türkiye İle Çin İkili Ticaretinde J Eğrisi: NARDL Yaklaşımı

Industrial Level J Curve in Turkey and China Bilateral Trade: A NARDL Approach

Nursena Küçüksoy(PAMUKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ)
Uğur Akkoç(PAMUKKALE ÜNİVERSİTESİ)0000-0002-9949-2097
Sayfa
190–209
Yayın Tarihi
2020-08-31
🏛️Bu makalenin bibliyografik verileri ve tam metin bağlantısı DergiPark üzerinden sağlanmıştır.
DergiPark Kaydı ↗
✨

Yapay Zeka Hızlı Bakış & Çıkarımlar

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

Son olarak incelenen dönemde hiçbir sektör için J eğrisini destekleyici bulguya rastlanmamıştır.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

🎯
Amaç & Hipotez:Dünyanın en büyük ihracatçısı ve en büyük ikinci ithalatçısı olan Çin ile Türkiye’nin dış ticaret hacmi son on yıldır sürekli artmaktadır.
📊
Temel Bulgular & Veri:Bu ticaretin Türkiye ekonomisi açısından önemli bir boyutu da tarihsel olarak Türkiye’nin Çin’e karşı 1990 yılından beri kesintisiz olarak dış ticaret açığı veriyor olmasıdır.
💡
Sonuç & Katkı:Son olarak incelenen dönemde hiçbir sektör için J eğrisini destekleyici bulguya rastlanmamıştır.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:2013-2019 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Dış Ticaret · Döviz Kuru · J Eğrisi

Özet

Dünyanın en büyük ihracatçısı ve en büyük ikinci ithalatçısı olan Çin ile Türkiye’nin dış ticaret hacmi son on yıldır sürekli artmaktadır. Bu ticaretin Türkiye ekonomisi açısından önemli bir boyutu da tarihsel olarak Türkiye’nin Çin’e karşı 1990 yılından beri kesintisiz olarak dış ticaret açığı veriyor olmasıdır. Bu çalışma Türkiye ile önemli bir ticari ortağı haline gelen Çin arasındaki ikili dış ticarette döviz kurunun etkisini J eğrisinin sunduğu teorik çerçeve içerisinde incelemektedir. 2013-2019 dönemi aylık verileriyle hem kısa ve uzun dönem etkileri ayrı ayrı ölçmeyi sağlayan hem de döviz kurunun etkisini asimetrik olarak modellenmesine olanak sağlayan NARDL modeli hem ekonominin geneli hem de önemli sektörler için tahmin edilmiştir. Döviz kurunun asimetrik etkileri yalnızca kısa dönemde tespit edilirken asimetrik etkiler geçerli olduğu tüm sektörlerde negatiftir. Döviz kurunun kısa dönem etkilerine bakıldığında ekonominin toplamı ile birlikte yalnızca üç sektörde (Kültür, Sanat ve Eğlence, Mobilya imalatı ve İmalat sanayi toplamı) etkilidir ve etkinin yönü tümünde negatiftir. Son olarak incelenen dönemde hiçbir sektör için J eğrisini destekleyici bulguya rastlanmamıştır.

Abstract

The trade volume of Turkey and China that is the largest exporter and second-largest importer of the world, has been increasing over the past ten years. An important dimension of this trade is that the Turkish economy has historically foreign trade deficit since 1990 interruptedly. This paper aims to investigate the impact of the exchange rate in bilateral trade between China and Turkey according to the theoretical framework provided by the J curve. With the monthly data of 2013-2019, the NARDL model, which allows to measure both short and long-term effects separately and allows the exchange rate effect to be modeled asymmetrically, has been estimated. Asymmetric effects of the exchange rate are detected only in the short term, while asymmetric effects are adverse in all sectors where it is valid. Considering the short-term effects of the exchange rate, it is effective only in three sectors (Culture, Arts and Entertainment, Furniture manufacturing, and manufacturing industry) together with the total of the economy, and the direction of the impact is negative in all. Finally, no findings supporting the J curve were found for any sector in the period examined.

🔖

Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Küçüksoy, N., Akkoç, U. (2020). Türkiye İle Çin İkili Ticaretinde J Eğrisi: NARDL Yaklaşımı. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 190–209. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.732614

📄 Tam Metin PDF Okuyucu

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

Kaynakça (47)

  1. Akbostancı, E. (2004). Dynamics of the trade balance: The Turkish J curve. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 40(5), 57-73. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2004.11052584
  2. Ardalani, Z. and Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (2007). Is there a J-Curve at the industry level?. Economics Bulletin, 6(26), 1-12. Ratrieved from http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/eb/
  3. Ari, A., Cergibozan, R. ve Cevik, E. (2019). J-curve in Turkish bilateral trade: A nonlinear approach. The International Trade Journal, 33(1). 31-53. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2018.1521316
  4. Arize, A. C., Malindretos, J. and Igwe, E. U. (2017). Do exchange rate changes improve the trade balance: An asymmetric nonlinear cointegration approach. International Review of Economics & Finance, 49, 313-326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.02.007
  5. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and the J-curve: Some evidence from LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 500-504. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925980
  6. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Bose, N. and Zhang, Y. (2018). Asymmetric cointegration, nonlinear ARDL, and the J-Curve: A bilateral analysis of China and its 21 trading partners. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 54(13), 3131-3151. doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2017.1373337
  7. Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., Bose, N. and Zhang, Y. (2019). An asymmetric analysis of the J‐Curve effect in the commodity trade between China and the US. The World Economy, 42(10). 2854-2899. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500399388
  8. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Durmaz, N. (2019). Asymmetric cointegration and the J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Turkey and EU. Empirica, 1-36. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-019-09455-4
  9. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Economidou, C. and Goswami, G. G. (2006). Bilateral J-curve between the UK vis-à-vis her major trading partners. Applied Economics, 38(8), 879-888. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12829
  10. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Fariditavana, H. (2016). Nonlinear ARDL approach and the J-curve phenomenon. Open Economies Review, 27(1), 51-70. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-015-9369-5
  11. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Goswami, G. (2003). A disaggregated approach to test the J-curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27(1), 102-113. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02751593
  12. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Halıcıoğlu, F. and Hegerty, S. W. (2016). Mexican bilateral trade and the J-curve: An application of the nonlinear ARDL model. Economic Analysis and Policy, 50, 23-40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2016.02.003
  13. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Ratha, A. (2004). The J-curve: A literature review. Applied Economics, 36(13), 1377-1398. https://doi.org/10.1080/0003684042000201794
  14. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Saha, S. (2016). Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on stock prices?. Global Finance Journal, 31, 57-72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2016.06.005
  15. Berke, B. ve Akarsu, G. (2017, Mayıs). Türkiye için J eğrisi analizi. Econ Anadolu V. Anadolu International Conference in Economics konferansında sunulan bildiri, Eskişehir, Türkiye. Erişim Adresi: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316154147_Turkiye_icin_S_Egrisi_Analizi
  16. Bickerdike, C.F. (1920). The Instability of foreign exchange. The Economic Journal, 30 (117), 118-122. https://doi.org/10.2307/2223208
  17. Connolly, M. and Taylor, D. (1972). Devaluation in less developed countries. Paper presented at conference on devaluation sponsored by the Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC.
  18. Cooper, R. N. (1971). Currency devaluation in developing countries. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
  19. Durmaz, N. (2015). Industry level J-curve in Turkey. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(4), 689-706. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-08-2013-0122
  20. Halıcıoğlu, F. (2007). The J‐curve dynamics of Turkish bilateral trade: A cointegration approach. Journal of Economic Studies, 34(2), 103-119. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443580710745362
  21. Halıcıoğlu, F. (2008). The bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 trading partners. Journal of Asian Economics, 19(3). 236-243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2008.02.006
  22. Harvey, H. (2018). Bilateral J-curve between Philippines and trading partners: Linear and non-linear approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 8(2), 131. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2018.82.131.144
  23. Hoang,* K. V. (2013). The effects of the real exchange rate on the trade balance: Is there a J-curve for Vietnam? A VAR approach. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(1), 1020-1034. Retrieved from: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/
  24. Hooy, C. W. and Chan, T. H. (2008). Examining exchange rates exposure, J-curve and the Marshall-Lerner condition for high frequency trade series between China and Malaysia (MPRA Paper No: 10916). Retrieved from: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/
  25. International Monetary Fund. (2019). World Economic and Financial Surveys: World Economic Outlook Database [Dataset]. Retrieved from: www.imf.org
  26. Iossifov, M. P. K. and Fei, X. (2019). Real effective exchange rate and trade balance adjustment: The case of Turkey (International Monetary Fund Working Paper 19/131) Retrieved from: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/
  27. Jamilov, R. (2013). J-Curve dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan. Transition Studies Review, 19(3), 313-323. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11300-012-0240-8
  28. Jelassi, M. M., Trabelsi, J. and Turki, M. (2017). Does the J-curve hypothesis hold for a small open economy? Evidence from time-varying coefficients of a distributed-lag model for Tunisia. International Economics, 152, 107-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2017.06.002
  29. Junz, H. B. and Rhomberg, R. R. (1973). Price competitiveness in export trade among ındustrial countries. The American Economic Review, 63(2), 412-418. https://www.jstor.org
  30. Karamelikli, H. (2016). Türkiye’nin dış ticaret dengesinde J-Eğrisi etkisi. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 389-402. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.16089
  31. Kiptui, M. C. (2018). The dynamics of the exchange rate and bilateral trade balances: Evidence from Kenya using nonlinear ARDL approach. International Journal of Contemporary Research and Review, 9(7). https://doi.org/10.15520/ijcrr/2018/9/07/539
  32. Laffer, A. B. (1974). The bitter fruits of devaluation, Wall Street Journal, s. 10.
  33. Lerner, A. P. (1944). Economics of Control: Principles of Welfare Economics. New York: Macmillan & Company.
  34. Magee, S. P. (1973). Currency contracts, pass-through, and devaluation, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, 1973(1), 303-325. DOI: 10.2307/2534091
  35. Marshall, A. (1923). Money, Credit & Commerce. New York: Macmillan & Company.
  36. Meade, J. E. (1951). The Theory of International Economic Policy. London: Oxford University Press.
  37. Metzler, L. (1948). A Survey of Contemporary Economics. Philadelphia: Homewood.
  38. Narayan, P. K. and Smyth, R. (2006). The dynamic relationship between real exchange rates, real ınterest rates and foreign exchange reserves: Empirical evidence from China. Applied Financial Economics, 16(9), 639-651. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100500401278
  39. Nusair, S. A. (2016). The effects of oil price shocks on the economies of the Gulf Co-operation Council Countries: Nonlinear analysis. Energy Policy, 91, 256-267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.01.013
  40. Nusair, S. A. (2017). The J-curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach. International Review of Applied Economics, 31(1), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2016.1214109
  41. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y, and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  42. Robinson, J. (1947). Essay in the Theory of Employment. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.
  43. Romilly, P., Song, H. and Liu, X. (2001). Car ownership and use in Britain: A comparison of the empirical results of alternative cointegration estimation methods and forecasts. Applied Economics. 33(14), 1803-1818. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840011021708
  44. Rose, A. K. and Yellen, J. L. (1989). Is there a J-Curve?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 24, 53-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(89)90016-0
  45. Shin, Y., Yu, B., and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In R. Scikles and W.C. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt (s.281-314). New York: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
  46. Suwanhirunkul, S. and Masih, M. (2018). Exchange rate and trade balance linkage: Sectoral evidence from Thailand based on nonlinear ARDL (MPRA Paper No: 87541) Retrieved from: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/
  47. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu. (2019). Dış Ticaret İstatistikleri [Veriseti]. Erişim Adresi: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=33848