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Dergiler / İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi / 2026 / Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1

Asymmetric Threshold Effects in the Growth–Current AccountDeficit Nexus: Evidence from Türkiye Using Quantile-on-Quantile Regression

Semra Boğa(DOGUS UNIVERSITY)0000-0003-2799-9080
Kemal Erkişi(ANTALYA BILIM UNIVERSITY)0000-0001-7197-8768
Sayfa
146–164
Yayın Tarihi
2026-02-19
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⚡ TL;DR(1 Cümlede Hızlı Çıkarım)

The findings emphasise the need to design growth policies in alignment with external balance objectives.

📌 3 Maddede Bu Makale

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Amaç & Hipotez:This study aims to analyse the structure of the relationship between economic growth and the current account deficit in the Turkish economy and how this relationship varies across different levels of growth.
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Temel Bulgular & Veri:The analysis was conducted using quarterly data for the period 2006:Q1 to 2023:Q3.
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Sonuç & Katkı:The findings emphasise the need to design growth policies in alignment with external balance objectives.
🔬Tür:Modelleme & Sayısal Simülasyon
📍Kapsam:2006 Verileri
⚙️Değişkenler:Economic Growth · Current Account Deficit · Quantile-on-Quantile Regression

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the structure of the relationship between economic growth and the current account deficit in the Turkish economy and how this relationship varies across different levels of growth. It is widely acknowledged in the literature that commonly used linear econometric models often fail to capture potential asymmetries and heterogeneities between variables. Therefore, this study employs the Quantile-on-Quantile Regression method, which allows simultaneous assessment of both dependent and independent variables across various quantile levels. The analysis was conducted using quarterly data for the period 2006:Q1 to 2023:Q3. The findings reveal that the relationship between the current account deficit and economic growth is asymmetric and quantile sensitive. In particular, rising current account deficits have a negative and statistically significant effect on growth at low levels of economic expansion. Conversely, this relationship tends to weaken or reverse at higher growth levels. These results reveal that when the current account deficit exceeds a certain threshold, it becomes unsustainable and acts as a drag on growth. The findings emphasise the need to design growth policies in alignment with external balance objectives.

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Bu Makaleye Atıf Yap

Boğa, S., Erkişi, K. (2026). Asymmetric Threshold Effects in the Growth–Current AccountDeficit Nexus: Evidence from Türkiye Using Quantile-on-Quantile Regression. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 146–164. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1709609

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