The effect of inflation uncertainty on price components: the case of turkey

Özet

\r\n This study examines the relationship between inflation uncertainty and price components in general price level. It examines which price components at general price level cause inflation uncertainty, and also which price components are more affected by such uncertainty. The Turkish economy is observed with regard to the time period between January 2003 and September 2011, and inflation uncertainty is obtained by being defined as conditional variance within the inflation process, which itself is estimated according to not only a function of its past values, but also a set of data including money supply, industrial production index, exchange rate, and interest rate. The relationship between price components and inflation uncertainty is analysed, using Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response and Variance Decompositions Analysis. As per the findings, the effect of inflation uncertainty on the price components of general price level, and similarly, the effects of price components of general price level on the inflation uncertainty differ.\r\n