IMPACT OF OIL PRICES ON THE DOMESTIC CURRENCY IN A SMALL INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY WITHOUT OIL RESOURCES

Abstract

This study aims at investigating the link between international oil prices and the exchange rate in case of a small open industrial economy without oil resources such as Poland. The results of Granger-causality test show that the null hypotheses of Zloty-US dollar exchange rate does not granger cause rejection of Oil Price is not rejected while there exists reverse causality in 3 and 4 year lags at 5% and 10% levels. Therefore, we conclude that increases in oil prices have had a positive impact on the exchange rates over the period between 1982:12 and 2006:05.