Journals / İstatistikçiler Dergisi:İstatistik ve Aktüerya / 2016 / Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1
Statistical Analysis of Terror Events: The Case of Turkey
- Pages
- 12–25
- DOI
- —
Abstract
analyzed via time-series approach. The purpose of the study is; to put forth the most appropriate time seriesmodels for each region and make forecasts for the terror events. In the analysis; the terror data (Armed Attack,The Mining, Harassing Fire, Using Explosives, Sabotage and Arson) obtained from official sources coveringthe years 2001-2012 have been used. The stationarity of 5 regions has been tested and the most appropriatetime series model for each region has been determined. The validity of the obtained time series models has beentested and the official data for 2011 have been compared with the forecasts made. As a result, effectiveness ofthe forecasts obtained from the time series models were given.
Özet
yaklaşımı ile analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı; her bölge için en uygun zaman serisi modelini ortaya