Journals / İstatistikçiler Dergisi:İstatistik ve Aktüerya / 2011 / Cilt: 4 - Sayı: 1
Mean Square Error of Total Claims Reserve Prediction in the Mandatory Traffic Insurance of Turkey
- Pages
- 9–15
- DOI
- —
Abstract
In this study, claims payments which will be made over the years gradually in the future and loss reserveswhich are total of these claims payments will be predicted by using chain ladder method. Also, estimators thatwere introduced in the studies of Wüthrich and Merz (2008) and Mack (1993) will be given for the meansquare error of the ultimate claim reserve. In application part of this study, the cumulative claims triangle dataof 22 companies serving in the mandatory traffic insurance for the 2004 – 2010 period are used. Twoaforementioned estimators were applied and mean square error predictions and variational coefficients werecomputed for 22 companies. Finally, average variational coefficient for total claims reserves for any companyworking in this insurance sector was calculated. Thus, an opportunity will be given to the insurance companiesfor making a stochastical assessment of the total claim reserve estimate’s quality.
Özet
Bu çalışmada, gelecek yııllarr boyunca kademeli yapılacak olan hasar ödemeleri ve bu ödemelerin toplamındanoluan hasar rezervleri, zincir merdiven yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Ayrıca bu yöntem ile elde edilen hasar