Journals / Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik ve Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi / 1999 / Cilt: 12 - Sayı: 1
The Effects Of Random Varıa Tıon Ofthe Prıces On Gold Mınıng Investment Rıskıness
- Pages
- 45–57
- DOI
- —
Abstract
The rccenl falls and random rarialions m world gold prices haveconsideralely increased loss riski in mine imestmenls. Sııch a case has esİcıblishedtheneedjor determination oftmcertainties in gold prices anıt iis effecls on mine investmenlriskiness.in Ihis sludy. firstty, using ıhe past ycars gold prices data a random walk pricepredicliun model has been investigaled. Thcn, a risk cmalysis model consiuering errordislribution puramclers in gold price prediclion has been developed, andby using ıhemmmg mvestment projecl dala of a gold mine in Tıırkey risk analyses have At-enrealised .As a result oflhe risk analyses, il has delermined Ihal wken gold pricesfellbelov S 250/troy om the mining company wil! he in loss wilh aprobahiiily of 85%: andwhen ıhe price increases över S 400/troy om Ihe mmpany v. iU be in profil withaprohability of 80%.
Özet
Dünya alim fiyaüarmda son yıllarda meydana gelen rassal değişim ve