The potential effects of future climate change on suitable habitat for the Taiwan partridge ( Arborophila crudigularis ): an ensemble-based forecasting method

Abstract

Climate change is considered to be one of the greatest threats to biodiversity in this century, especially for range-restrictedisland species. This study explored the potential effects of climate change onArborophila crudigularis , a weak-flying endemic bird speciesin Taiwan. The potential effects of climate change on climatically suitable habitat forA. crudigulariswere analyzed in biomod2 andArcGIS software. Future climate change could increase the availability of climatically suitable habitat forA. crudigulariswhile decreasingthe mean suitability for both the entire suitable area and the area with known presence records. By 2050 and 2080, climatically suitablehabitat is expected to increase by an average of 4.57% and 5.18%, respectively; the mean suitability of the entire climatically suitablehabitat is expected to decrease by 4.80% and 6.61%; and the mean suitability of known presence records is expected to decrease by 2.70%and 4.62%, respectively. Future climate change will not be disastrous forA. crudigularisin Taiwan. Future efforts to conserve this speciesshould focus on northwestern Taiwan.