Investigation of the groundwater efect on slow-motion landslides by using dynamic Kalman fltering method with GPS: Koyulhisar town center

Abstract

The monitoring and analysis of natural disasters and their systems is crucially important in minimizing loss of life andproperty. In recent years, various methods of measurement and analysis have been employed to monitor and analyze landslides andtheir mechanisms. Te Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the methods used to monitor landslides. Te consideration ofexternal forces causing movement is essential when interpreting movement obtained by GPS. Tis paper describes a large motion in theKoyulhisar town center obtained from one GPS point. Twelve GPS points were set up in the Koyulhisar landslide region; 6 periods ofGPS measurements were performed. Te resultant data were processed using Bernese V5.0 sofware and coordinate information relatedto the points was obtained. In this study, the relationship between large motion and external forces was mathematically determined in adiferent way from previous studies. Te coordinate information was frst analyzed using the kinematic Kalman fltering technique andtime-dependent speed and acceleration values for the points were determined. Data from the points at which signifcant displacementswere observed were then analyzed using the dynamic Kalman fltering technique and the relationship between signifcant movementsand temperature was modeled. Finally, the dynamic and kinematic model results were compared; it was observed that the displacementspredicted by the dynamic model were more consistent with real values. It is concluded that accuracy in developing prediction models fordeformations in landslides would be improved by using a dynamic deformation model containing either forces causing deformations orfunctions of quantities related to these forces.