The Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan Triangle: The Unexpected Outcomes of the Zurich Protocols

Abstract

This paper analyses the domestic and regional impact of the Turkish-Armenian normalisation process from the Azerbaijani perspective, with a focus on the changing dynamic of AnkaraBaku relations. This line of enquiry is informed by international contexts, notably the 2008 Russian-Georgian war and the respective roles of the US and Russia. The first section reviews the changed regional dynamic following two regional crises: the August War and the TurkishArmenian rapprochement. The second section analyses domestic reaction in Azerbaijan among political parties, the media, and the public. The third section will consider the normalisation process, from its inception through to its suspension. The authors find that the crisis in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations has resulted in an intensification of the strategic partnership, concluding that the abortive normalisation process in many ways stabilised the pre-2008 status quo in terms of the geopolitical dynamics of the region.