The Transmission and Demand Forecasting ofCommercial Credits in Turke

Abstract

The aim of the study is to determine the utilization rates of the commercial credits requested from the public, private, and foreign-capital banks in Turkey and the transition probabilities, and to make predictions on the prospective utilization rates of different types of commercial credits. According to the research findings, while the transition for workplace and vehicle credits is towards the private banks; the transition for consumer credits is towards the public banks. Prospective estimations suggest that workplace credits will be requested mostly from private banks; vehicle credits will be requested from the public, private, and foreign-capital banks approximately at the same rate; and as for the consumer credits, the dominance will pass on to public banks from the private banks.

Özet

Bu çalúmann amac Türkiye’deki kamu, özel ve yabanc sermayeli bankalardan talep edilen ticari kredilerin kullanm oranlarn ve geçiúkenlik olaslklarn tespit etmek ve gelecekte ticari kredi türlerinin tahmini kullanm oranlar için bir öngörüde bulunmaktr. Araútrmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre iúyeri ve taút kredisinde en fazla geçiúin özel sermayeli bankalara; ihtiyaç kredisinde ise kamu sermayeli bankalara do÷ru oldu÷u tespit edilmiútir. Gelece÷e yönelik talep tahminlerinin sonuçlarna göre ise iúyeri kredisinin en fazla özel sermayeli bankalardan talep edilece÷i; taút kredisinde kamu, özel ve yabanc sermayeli bankalarn oldukça yakn oranlarda talep edilecekleri; ihtiyaç kredisinde ise üstünlü÷ün özel sermayeli bankalardan kamu sermayeli bankalara geçece÷i öngörülmüútür.