Modeling effect based operations using fuzzy cognitive maps and simulation

Etki odaklı harekatın bulanık bilişsel harita ve simülasyon ile modellenmesi

Abstract

Historically, the majority of military operations have been conducted on the logical premise that degrading an adversary’s military combat power will sap his will to continue the conflict. In future conflicts, such an approach may not prove to be as effective. Increasing of the effect of adversary’s military destruction power provided by innovations in technology and globalization, gaining importance of preventive intervention concept instead of opposing the enemy’s force, insufficiency of military focused operations for desired endstate against new threats and ambiguities, showing an increased reluctance to support conflicts that result in heavy loss of life (friend or foe) and wide spread destruction of property by many societies have initiated the transition to Effect Based Planning system.Effect Based Operations (EBO) could be defined as a process for obtaining a desired strategic outcome or effect on the enemy through the synergistic and cumulative application of the full range of military and non-military capabilities at all levels, tactical, operative and strategic, of conflict. A different and broader definition is given as “EBO are coordinated sets of actions directed at shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis and war”.In EBO concept, nodes which compose desired effect on enemy, gain importance rather than physical targets. Focused on activity-effect-object link with an effect based concern, adversary’s weak points and connection points which could create chain effect are aimed instead of attacking the strong sides. In this concept, effects which are intended to strategic objectives are determined and alternative courses of actions (COA) are defined to form those effects. To obtain the desired effect on predetermined nodes, not only military alternatives but also political and economical powers in addition to information warfare are used in a system approach manner in order to serve different alternatives to decision makers.As in the other sort of operation planning, in EBO planning, decision makers have to determine alternative COAs which realize the desired effects, evaluate them and choose the best one. Thereforeproblem studied on is described as determining alternative COAs which could realize the aims of operation and choosing the best one among them. EBO rely on the ability to identify the effects that will lead to campaign success. Because of this, it is essential to manifest all effects which can contribute reaching the aims and interactions between those effects. This exertion deduces a network structure. Constructed network to solve the problem need not to have hierarchical structure, feedbacks can exist. It is essential that nodes (variables, concepts) should be measurable. To provide this each node must have a value. Effect possibility, effect duration, effect value and effect permanence should be involved in evaluation. The purpose is to find out a method / tool that supports deciding which nodes should be triggered on the emergent network to obtain the desired endstate.In the study, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) were selected as the solving method and effect possibility, effect duration, dynamic effect value changing and effect permanence features were added to the FCMs’ concept value calculation algorithm which do not exist in the classical method. Developed algorithm was applied to a sample scenario.The data needed by developed model and related to the scenario were made up by six experts. At the end of applications performed by using those data, it was observed that added features to FCM method produced different outcomes proportional to the classical computing algorithm. Because of that, these features must be taken into consideration in planning and studies with FCMs. Additionally, produced test tool provide ability to the decision maker to trigger the desired nodes on the designed network and observe the achievement degree of operation objectives. In future; to realize the desired effects with desired degree, it is essential to study on finding the best nodes set to be triggered and the best initial value of those nodes under the conditions of time, cost etc.In the current situation, decision makers need to make many experiments with different initial configurations to find such a “best” solution. Because this is unreasonable especially when the amount of nodes increases, methods have been begun to search for performing that optimization.

Özet

Etki Odaklı Harekât, düşman üzerinde istenen stratejik çıktıyı elde etmek için, tüm askeri ve askeri olmayan kabiliyetlerin; taktik, operatif ve stratejik seviyede, sinerji sağlayacak şekilde uygulanması süreci olarak tanımlanabilir. Etki Odaklı Harekat konseptinde fiziksel hedeflerden çok, düşman üzerinde arzu edilen etkiyi yaratacak düğüm noktaları önem kazanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada problem, harekâtın amaçlarını gerçekleştirecek farklı hareket tarzlarının belirlenmesi ve uygun hareket tarzının seçimi olarak tanımlanmıştır. Bu nedenle öncelikle karar vericinin amaçlarına ulaşmasında fayda sağlayabilecek tüm etkilerin ve bu etkiler arası etkileşimlerin ortaya konması gerekmektedir. Bu çalışma bir şebeke yapısı ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Yapılmak istenen; ortaya çıkan şebeke üzerinde, istenen amaçları elde etmek için, hangi düğümlerin tetiklenmesi gerektiğine karar vermeye destek sağlayacak bir yöntem/araç bulunmasıdır. Ortaya çıkan şebekenin taşıması beklenen özellikler düşünülerek, yapılan incelemeler sonucunda, seçilecek yöntemin klasik Bulanık Bilişsel Harita olmasına ve yöntemin ihtiyaçlar doğrultusunda geliştirilmesine karar verilmiştir. Çalışmada Bulanık Bilişsel Harita yöntemine; etki olabilirliği, etki süresi, dinamik etki değeri değişimi ve etki kalıcılığı özellikleri eklenmiştir. Geliştirilen model örnek bir senaryo üzerinde uygulanmıştır. Alan uzmanlarıyla çalışılarak belirlenen senaryo değerlerleri ile yapılan uygulamalar sonucunda Bulanık Bilişsel Harita yöntemine eklenen özelliklerin, sonuçlar üzerinde, klasik haline göre önemli farklılıklar yarattığı görülmüştür. Bu nedenle özelliklerin planlamalarda ve Bulanık Bilişsel Harita ile çalışmalarda dikkate alınması önerilmektedir. Elde edilen deneme aracı, karar vericiye, oluşturulan şebeke üzerinde istenen düğümlere istenen ilk değerler verilerek harekatın amaçlarına erişim derecesini gözlemleme olanağı sunmuştur.