Researching the effects of the expertise levels of the participants to the results on national technology foresight Delphi Survey

Ulusal teknoloji öngörü çalışmalarında uzmanlık seviyesinin sonuçlara etkisinin araştırılması

Abstract

Foresight is the whole systematic studies performed for determining spreading technologies and strate-gic researches which will provide the most econom-ic, environmental and social benefits to the country in the future by taking into account of the long term expectancies relating to science, technology, econo-my, environment and society's future. In its other definition, it is a systematic process which includes to concern with science, technology, economy and society's long term perspective in order to define strategic researches and spreading technology fields. Foresight studies can be gathered under three gen-eration. In the first generation studies, foresight consisted of only technology forecasting. Technolo-gy experts and futurologists were participated in these foresight studies, in the second generation foresight studies, market and technology were con-sidered together and participants consisted of acad-emicians and industrialists. And in the third genera-tion foresight studies, social dimension was accom-panied to technology and market.. Expertise levels of experts who are consulted for their opinions and their effects to the results of fore-sight are subjects of the discussion in this extent. The subject is concerned within the frame of scien-tific approach by basing on these discussions and the effects of expertise levels of the experts consulted to the outputs is measured statistically by making use of data with the permission of TÜBİTAK from Vision 2023 delphi survey, the first national tech-nology foresight project of Turkey. The subject on selecting experts consulted for their opinions delphi surveys according to their expertise levels, which is discussed many countries and litera-tures within the context of National Technology Foresight projects is studied. The matter that the persons having knowledge and experience regarding the subject intensively being in agreement recently in the literature is in the direction that every exper-tise level adds a different point of view to the study. The argument that the studies including only the ex-perts regarding the subject reflect a narrow point of view is common However, in the articles written be-fore 2000, traditional approach defense was in the direction that studies only with experts having high-er and medium expertise levels provides to focus on more specific technology fields and obtains more effective results scientifically. Japan Delphi survey still carries out its performances with experts having higher expertise levels. “Expertise” subject taking place in the literature is examined with a new agenda by approaching more different point of view within the study extent. The effect of taking into account of determination of ex-pertise levels and specific/strategic technology fields of the expert consulted both in panels and in Delphi survey as a factor to the results is examined statisti-cally within the context of national technology fore-sight project. Hypothesis is that taking into account of expertise levels of the experts participating in Delphi Survey and consulted for their opinions as a factor creates a difference in the grading strategic technology fields determined as a result of the study. Data of Delphi Survey is firstly evaluated by consid-ering the expertise levels of all experts equal and then new results are occurred by weighting the an-swers they stated for every statement with their ex-pertise levels. Two different results from the answers the same sample group gave are compared to each other and are entered to appropriate tests. The re-sults of these tests prove that the contribution values are different from each other in cases of the same expertise level and of the different expertise level of all participants. And this shows that taking into ac-count of expertise level as a factor causes differenti-ation of the strategic technology fields determined according to Delphi Survey performed within the context of foresight study and confirms hypothesis. National technology foresight projects have a criti-cal importance for countries wishing to gain compe-tency to be a power for building the future on their own. In this field; it is expected that new results ob-tained with scientific approach by analyzing the re-searches made for methodology, performance and result, evidences put forward with different ap-proaches will be a base for next studies and provide important improvement opportunities.

Özet

Teknoloji öngörüsü, bilim, teknoloji, ekonomi, çevre ve toplum geleceği ile ilgili uzun dönemli beklen-tilerin dikkate alınması ile ülkeye gelecekte en fazla ekonomik, çevresel ve sosyal yararlar sağlayacak yayılgan teknolojilerin ve stratejik araştırma alanlarının belirlenmesi için yapılan sistematik çalışma-lar bütünüdür. Öngörü, bugünkü seçimlerin geleceği şekillendirebileceği hatta yaratabileceği olgu-suyla, geleceğe yönelik bilinçli bir aktif yaklaşımdır. Konu yaygınlığı ve önemi itibariyle çok sayıda bilim insanının ilgi alanı olmakta, literatürde metodolijelere ilişkin tartışmalar ön plana çıkmaktadır. Son dönemde üzerinde özellikle çalışılan alanlardan birisi de, görüşüne başvurulan „uzmanları‟ın; -interdisiplinerlik yaklaşımını gözeterek- uzmanlık seviyesi, temsil ettiği sektör, sosyo-ekonomik profili, cinsiyeti, yaşı gibi faktörler dikkate alarak seçilmesi konusudur. Çalışma kapsamında uzmanlık konu-suna, bilimsel yaklaşım çerçevesinde bakılmış, Ulusal Öngörü Projesi Vizyon 2023 Delfi Analizi veri-lerinden TÜBİTAK izni ile yararlanılarak, görüşüne başvurulan uzmanların, uzmanlık seviyesinin çıktılara etkisi, istatistiki olarak analiz edilmiştir. Ortaya konan hipotez; ulusal teknoloji öngörüsü projelerinde yaygın danışma yöntemi olarak kullanılan Delfi Analizi‟ne katılan ve görüşünden yarar-lanılan uzmanların, uzmanlık seviyelerinin bir faktör olarak hesaba katılmasının, katılmaması duru-mu ile fark arz ettiği, dolayısıyla çalışma sonucunda belirlenen öncelikli teknoloji alanları sıralama-sında farklılık yaratacağıdır. Yapılan istatistiki değerlendirme ve uygulanan testlerle hipotez doğru-lanmıştır. Ulusal teknoloji öngörü projeleri geleceği kendi kurgulayabilen bir güç olma yetkinliğini kazanmak isteyen ülkeler için kritik öneme haizdir. Bu alanda; metodolojiye, uygulama ve sonuçlara yönelik yapılan araştırmaların, veriler analiz edilerek ulaşılan yeni sonuçların, sonraki çalışmalar için temel teşkil etmesi ve gelişme fırsatları sağlaması hedeflenmektedir.