Developing models of pavement performance estimation using fuzzy logic and regression analyze approach for the motorway network in Turkey

Türkiye Otoyol Ağı için üstyapı performans tahmin modellerinin geliştirilmesi

Abstract

21. Century World of transportation services without adequate and contemporary social and economic life is not possible to keep alive and dynamic. The main aim of transportation, the country development goals of economic and social needs of the service, the user, to secure the economic condition, age and by using technology, international rules and in com-pliance with EU policies, to provide uninterrupted. Science and technology progress, the economy needs people to change their habits and cultural accumu-lation, and possibly all of them at the top of the po-litical preferences, and improve access framework is referring to. In general, an investment in transport and the operation to be financed by the state tradi-tion have continued until recently. However, the worldwide increase in the need for transportation investments and public sector of its limited re-sources, the state as the primary task of the public service has forced the change. In this context, pri-vate sector investment in transport infrastructure by the interest of public resources without the need or less fixed by public contributions and the roads are intended to be searched. However, the private sector by the implementation of transport investment op-portunities, to provide an important opening, the demand and the private sector increasingly replicat-ed because of limitations in resources, public also needs to contribute is inevitable. Today, construc-tion of new highway each day to reduce motor vehi-cle traffic in the continuous increase in resources and right in the face of difficulties, the new highway as much of the existing highway superstructure, the future intensive and heavy traffic can provide an-swers to the maintenance, repair and renewal work as more important. Turkey’s Motorway Network maintenance and repair is too high to reach for the requirements of the budget because of limited re-sources available in our country of resources in a more efficient use, to the motorway network, roads, Pavement Management System implementation has become mandatory to have. Pavement Management System (PMS), limited to an existing budget, to pro-vide the highest gain optimum maintenance / im-provement programs to create a priority objective and systematic approach to move. This system, road managers, limited budget available for road im-provement in terms of better use to help you decide to minimize the initiative depends on the person. The basic purpose of a pavement management sys-tem is to achieve the best value possible for the available public funds and to provide safe, comfort-able and economic transportation. Pavement Management System (PMS), are applica-ble on two levels, namely the network level and the individual (project) level. At the network level, deci-sions are made on a large group of projects or an entire motorway network regarding what to do (re-pair, rehabilitation or other measures) and when and where. The individual or project level, on the other hand, is concerned with more specific tech-nical management decisions for the individual pro-jects. Roughness of a motorway is an important pa-rameter which not only indicates the comfort level of ride over a pavement surface, but it is also related to vehicle’s vibration, operating speed wear and tear of the wheel, vehicle operating cost. Some of the roughness indices, which are used to quantify the road roughness, are: International Roughness Index (IRI), Mean Panel Rating (MPR), Profile Index (PI), Ride Number (RN), Root Mean Square Vertical Ac-celeration (RMSVA.)In this study, General Direc-torate of Turkish Highways as a result of measure-ment data (IRI and RN) collected with the use of mo-torways in the pavement when the corruption occurs in the future, to create models (fuzzy logic, regres-sion analyze) to help in the matter of identifying the country in accordance with our conditions, a Pave-ment Management System (PMS)'s goal is to be es-tablished. In this paper, to develop a system for planning of pavement maintenance works on the motorway net-work in Turkey, on which roughness tests were made by KGM (General Directorate of Turkish Highways) considered. By using the present parameters for the conditions in Turkey (traffic, climate, material fea-tures, total thickness of distressed motorways, pavement temperatures etc.) and the measured roughness values (IRI, RN),pavement performance estimation modelling and related to this, a method about establishing a pavement rehabilitation pro-gram for the future, is given. In this study, to create models, used two computer programs which above written in MATLAB2008R Fuzzy Logic toolbox and SPSS16

Özet

Ulaştırma yatırımlarının devlet tarafından finanse edilmesi ve işletilmesi geleneği yakın zamanlara kadar sürmüştür. Ne var ki tüm dünyada ulaştırma yatırımlarına olan gereksinimin artışı ve kamu kesimi kaynaklarının sınırlılığı, devletlerin asli görevleri olarak görülen kamu hizmeti anlayışını değişime zorlamıştır. Bu bağlamda özel sektörün ilgisinin ulaştırma altyapı yatırımlarına çekilerek ihtiyaçların kamu kaynaklarına gerek kalmadan veya daha az kamu katkısıyla giderilmesi amaç-lanmakta ve bunun yolları aranmaktadır. Günümüzde yeni otoyolların yapımı her geçen gün azal-makta, motorlu taşıt trafiğindeki sürekli artışlar ve kaynak sağlanmasındaki güçlükler karşısında, yeni otoyolu yapmaktan çok mevcut otoyol üstyapılarının, gelecekteki yoğun ve ağır trafiğe cevap verebilecek şekilde bakımı, onarımı ve yenilenmesi gibi çalışmalar daha çok önem kazanmaktadır. Türkiye otoyol ağının bakım ve onarımı için çok yüksek değerlere ulaşan bütçe gereksinimleri ne-deniyle, sınırlı kaynaklara sahip bulunan ülkemizde, kaynakların daha verimli biçimde kullanılma-sını sağlamak amacıyla, otoyol ağı içindeki yollarda, Üstyapı Yönetim Sistemi’nin uygulanması zo-runlu hale gelmiş bulunmaktadır. Üstyapı Yönetim Sistemi (ÜYS), sınırlı mevcut bir bütçeye, en yüksek kazanç sağlayacak optimum bakım/iyileştirme önceliği programlarını oluşturmak için, nes-nel ve sistematik yaklaşım taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada; Karayolları Genel Müdürlüğü’nce yapılan ölçümlerin (IRI, RN) sonucunda toplanan veriler kullanılarak, otoyolların üstyapısında bozulmala-rın ne zaman meydana geleceğinin, oluşturulacak modeller (fuzzy logic, regresyon analizi) yardı-mıyla saptanması hususunda, ülkemiz koşullarına uygun örnek bir Üstyapı Yönetim Sistemi (ÜYS)’nin kurulması amaçlanmaktadır.