Predicted Changes in Climatic Niche of Alburnus Species (Teleostei: Cyprinidae) in Iran Until 2050

Özet

Distribution ranges of many organisms are changing in response to global climate change and human activities. To testthe impact of climatic change on distribution range of cyprinid fish species, Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was usedto predict the current climatically suitable habitats and to identify key variables shaping the potential distribution for the genusAlburnus in Iran, an excellent example of high diversity and endemism in the western Palearctic region. Then, future changesin potential suitable areas of the genus Alburnus were evaluated with one future global climatic model (GCM) based on 2050climatic projection. Results show as a general pattern, basins along the Elburz and Zagros Mountains had highest climaticsuitability for the genus in Iran. According to the results of jackknife test and percent contribution of each variable toconstruct the models, precipitation plays the important role on the distribution of Alburnus species in Iran than temperature.Model outputs show all species likely to be negatively affected by the climate change in future and the currently potentialsuitable areas were predicted to decrease in the coming decades, suggesting a comprehensive management plan forconservation of this cyprinid fish need to be conducted in the country.