Occurrence of extreme winds over the Black Sea during january under present and near future climate

Özet

In the present study, the occurrence frequency of extreme wind speed over the Black Sea surface is analysed, aiming to assess the differences between simulated and observed characteristics under present climate (2001 -2009) and to investigate the near term projected chan ges (2011 -2040 vs. 1961 -2000) of this indicator in the context of A1B scenario. We use observational data provided by measurements at meteorological stations on Romanian coast and satellite QuickScat data, as well as modelled data from numerical experiments with a high resolution regional climate model, taken from the results of the EU project ENSEMBLES. Previous climatological analysis has indicated that January is prone to extreme wind episodes, so we have focused our investigation on this month. The analysis performed for the entire Black Sea basin, as well as for two costal sites, highlights Western and Northern areas which have a significant incidence of moderate and strong wind episodes under present climate (2001 -2009). In the period 2011 -2040, under A1B climate change scenario, the decrease in the frequency of moderate and high wind episodes takes place over almost entire basin, except for some Southern areas of the Black Sea.