PREDICTINGTHE ENERGY PRODUCTIONOF A ROOFTOP PV PLANT BY USING DIFFERENTIAL EVOLUTION ALGORITHM

Özet

In this study, a simple and plainclosed-form mathematical expressionhas been obtainedto preciselyestimatethe monthly production of a rooftop photovoltaic(PV)plant installed in Adana, Turkey. The proposed modelis developed by utilizingthe Differential Evolution (DE) optimization algorithm based onthe PVplant’s5-year(August 2013 –July 2018)real measurement data. The PV plant is a grid-connected rooftop solar PV system located at Kıvanç Textile in Adana, Turkey.The PV systemis equipped with anonline monitoring system that providesreal time data. The study shows the actual energy production is730 MWh/yearon average for 5 years. In order to testthe robustness and precisionof the present model, it hasbeen compared with the long-term real measurementdataof the PV system.The key benefitof themodel is givinga convincingpredictionof the future productionof the PV panelin a simple way.It also does not require any further information other than time. Average percentage error was reached as small as 7.4% for 5-year data