Sensitivity of online coupled model to extreme pollution event over a mega city Delhi

Özet

Sensitivity of interactive Weather-Chemistry model has been examined to predict the air quality (1 and 3days in advance) of Indian mega city Delhi during two identical extreme events of Diwali in 2012 and2013. Analysis is conducted 3 days prior to 3 days later of Diwali day for both events to verify the rapidchanges in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) due to widespread display of Diwali fireworks. The modelsuccessfully predicted the variability in PM2.5 during 2012 for the entire period of analysis withreasonable accuracy. Although model performed reasonably well until Diwali day in 2013 but it wasunable to simulate rapid built up of PM2.5 (1500 mg3 hourly average) during post Diwali day as it failedto capture unusual mid-night steep temperature gradient followed by a record lowering of boundarylayer height. The predictability of the model and its limitation to micrometeorological processes arediscussed in detail.