Using FGM(1,1) model to predict the number of the lightly polluted day in Jing-Jin-Ji region of China

Özet

This paper focuses on the problem of poor air quality in Jing-Jin-Ji region of China. According to the data of thereport on the state of the environment in Jing-Jin-Ji region in 2013–2016, the fractional order accumulation GM(1,1) model was adopted to predict the number of the lightly polluted day and the annual average concentrationof $PM_2.5$ in the Jing-Jin-Ji region in 2020. The forecasting results show that it will be difficult for the Jing-Jin-Jiregion to achieve the goal of more than 80% lightly polluted day in 2020. The Jing-Jin-Ji region should adjustmeasures according to the local conditions, to achieve a significant improvement of air quality