The Red-Bull Effect: Causes and Consequences of Overconfidence in Foreign Policy Decision Making

Özet

Why do foreign policy decision makers take risk in situations that require prudence? Why do theyescalate their commit to a failing course of action? This research examines the impact of overconfidencein foreign policy decision making. Building on extensive literature in social psychology, the premise ofmy argument is that successful past performance leads decision makers to develop overconfidence intheir judgment, capacity and expectations, which bias their risk assessments. Based on this assumption,I develop a model that explains the causes and consequences of overconfidence in foreign policydecision making. In the model, past success persuades decision makers to overweight their skillsand knowledge relative to what objective evidence warrants, which generates inordinate risk takingand exposes decision makers to sever failures. However, belief in success survives despite glaringsetbacks, which convinces decision makers to escalate their commitment to a failing course of action.Nevertheless, there is a limit to decision makers’ ability to engage in self-deception. Therefore, over thecourse of repeated failures, it is expected that the decision makers will make adjustments to correctoverconfident reactions.