APPLICABILITY OF TIME-DEPENDENT SEISMICITY MODEL FOR EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE ALONG THE NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT ZONE

Abstract

The applicability of the time-dependent seismicity model was investigated for earthquakes occurrence along the North Anatolian Fault Zone. This region was separated into thirteen seismogenic zones by virtue of specific seismological and geomorphological criteria, and RTIMAP (regional time and magnitude predictable) model was applied for these zones. The data including in both instrumental period (Ms ³ 5.5) until the beginning of 2016 and historical period (Io ³ 9.0 corresponding to Ms ³ 7.0) before 1900 have been used in the study. Interevent times and magnitudes of mainshocks generated in each zone have predictive properties expressed by the RTIMAP. For the region considered, the relationship with increasing slope between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the preceding earthquake shows that this model is suitable. On the basis of these equations and taking into account the formation time and magnitude of the last events in each zone, probabilities to the next main shocks in five decades and the magnitudes of the next events were estimated.