Short- and long-term variations, spatial analysis along with cancer health risk assessment associated with 1, 3-butadiene

Özet

In this study, spatial analysis and chronic cancer risk of ambient values of 1, 3-butadiene (BD) were investigated in the eastern USA. In addition, the temporal variation of BD was assessed in Beaumont, Texas. Both spatial and temporal analyses indicated that in addition to traffic emissions, some other sources such as forest fires and industrial activities may contribute locally to the release of BD in the atmosphere. A combined method of TBATS and Prophet was utilized for the first time for multi-seasonal decomposition of BD between 2014 and 2018 along with time series forecasting indicating the existence of an annual seasonality in daily values of BD. The time series forecasting by Prophet proved that the trend of BD is expected to decrease from 2019 to 2021 with higher values in the cold seasons in comparison with the summertime. Based on the findings of both deterministic and probabilistic health risk assessment (PRA), the children were exposed to a higher risk due to inhalation of BD. For instance, regarding PRA, the respective median, mean and maximum risk values for the children were 6.72 × 10−6 , 3.17 × 10−5 and 4.24 × 10−3 , respectively demonstrating that the true risk may be higher if the uncertainty in the input parameters is taken into account. Meanwhile, with respect to the findings for the children, 42.40% of the local residents were exposed to a higher acceptable risk level of 1 × 10−5 while only 6.84% are exposed to an immediate risk greater than the threshold level of 1 × 10−4 .