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Journals / TESAM Akademi Dergisi / 2020 / Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1

Consumer Confidence and Exchange Rate Relationship in Turkey

TÜRKİYE’DE TÜKETİCİ GÜVENİ VE DÖVİZ KURU İLİŞKİSİ

Özer ARABACI
Metin ÖZDEMİR
Pages
231–248
Publication Date
2020-02-28
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

Our emprical findings indicate that there is a unidirectional relationship running from the exchange rate to the consumer confidence index.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study investigates the relationship between consumer confidence index and exchange rate by employing cointegration method and causality analysis for the period 2012:01-2018:06 in Turkey.
📊
Key Findings & Data:In small open economies, the exchange rate is both a portfolio preference and an economic policy variable.
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Conclusion & Impact:Our emprical findings indicate that there is a unidirectional relationship running from the exchange rate to the consumer confidence index.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2012 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Tüketici Güveni · Döviz Kuru · Nedensellik Analizi

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between consumer confidence index and exchange rate by employing cointegration method and causality analysis for the period 2012:01-2018:06 in Turkey. There is a consensus in the literature that consumer confidence plays an important role in predicting and understanding cyclical fluctuations. In small open economies, the exchange rate is both a portfolio preference and an economic policy variable. For this reason, it is an important variable that functions as a psychological barometer on the future decisions of economic agents beyond the changes in macroeonomic aggregates. Our emprical findings indicate that there is a unidirectional relationship running from the exchange rate to the consumer confidence index. Also, exchange rate shocks has statistically significant and persistent effect on the consumer confidence index.

Özet

Bu çalışma 2012:01-2018:06 dönemi için Türkiye’de tüketici güven endeksi ile döviz kuru arasındaki ilişkiyi, eşbütünleşme yöntemi ve nedensellik analizini kullanarak araştırmaktadır. Tüketici güveninin, konjonktürel dalgalanmaların öngörülmesi ve anlaşılmasında önemli rol oynadığı hususunda literatürde bir görüş birliği mevcuttur. Küçük açık ekonomiler söz konusu olduğunda döviz kuru değişkeni hem bir portföy tercihi unsuru hem de bir iktisat politikası değişkeni olma niteliğine sahiptir. Bu nedenle, makroekonomik büyüklüklerdeki değişmelerin ötesinde, iktisadi ajanların geleceğe yönelik kararları üzerinde psikolojik bir barometre işlevi görmektedir. Ampirik bulgularımız, döviz kuru ile tüketici güven endeksi arasında nedenselliğin döviz kurundan tüketici güven endeksine doğru olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca, döviz kuru şoklarının tüketici güven endeksi üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir şekilde kalıcı etkiye sahip olduğu görülmüştür.

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Cite This Article

ARABACI, Ö., ÖZDEMİR, M. (2020). Consumer Confidence and Exchange Rate Relationship in Turkey. TESAM Akademi Dergisi, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 231–248. https://ajindex.com/articles/913375

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