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Journals / Journal of Life Economics / 2020 / Cilt: 7 - Sayı: 3

COINTEGRATION EVIDENCES FROM THE NEW FRAGILE FIVE

Gülgün ÇİĞDEM
Merve ALTAYLAR
Pages
269–282
Publication Date
2020-08-15
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

This study, which will contribute to the expansion of typology, is also contributory to the “Triple Deficit Hypothesis”.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Purpose of this study is to test the association between savings and current account deficit of the “New Fragile Five” falling into critical cycle. 1994-2019 period annual national savings, current account balance and external debt have been analyzed within the framework of panel data analysis.
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Key Findings & Data:The research has four important findings; i.There is a cointegration relationship between indicators, ii.The external debt increases the current account deficit, iii.The increase of savings in Turkey decreases the current account deficit, iv.An increase in savings increases the current account deficit in Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan and Qatar.
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Conclusion & Impact:This study, which will contribute to the expansion of typology, is also contributory to the “Triple Deficit Hypothesis”.
🔬Design:Modeling & Simulation
📍Scope:2019 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Current Account Deficit · Savings · Triple Deficit

Abstract

Purpose of this study is to test the association between savings and current account deficit of the “New Fragile Five” falling into critical cycle. 1994-2019 period annual national savings, current account balance and external debt have been analyzed within the framework of panel data analysis. At the modeling stage of the research focused on the cointegration relationship. Panel cointegration tests with structural breaks based on LM were used. To examine the unique economic structures of countries, heterogeneous estimating techniques were employed. The research has four important findings; i.There is a cointegration relationship between indicators, ii.The external debt increases the current account deficit, iii.The increase of savings in Turkey decreases the current account deficit, iv.An increase in savings increases the current account deficit in Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan and Qatar. This study, which will contribute to the expansion of typology, is also contributory to the “Triple Deficit Hypothesis”.

Özet

Purpose of this study is to test the association between savings and current account deficit of the “New Fragile Five” falling into critical cycle. 1994-2019 period annual national savings, current account balance and external debt have been analyzed within the framework of panel data analysis. At the modeling stage of the research focused on the cointegration relationship. Panel cointegration tests with structural breaks based on LM were used. To examine the unique economic structures of countries, heterogeneous estimating techniques were employed. The research has four important findings; i.There is a cointegration relationship between indicators, ii.The external debt increases the current account deficit, iii.The increase of savings in Turkey decreases the current account deficit, iv.An increase in savings increases the current account deficit in Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan and Qatar. This study, which will contribute to the expansion of typology, is also contributory to the “Triple Deficit Hypothesis”.

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Cite This Article

ÇİĞDEM, G., ALTAYLAR, M. (2020). COINTEGRATION EVIDENCES FROM THE NEW FRAGILE FIVE. Journal of Life Economics, Cilt: 7 - Sayı: 3, 269–282. https://ajindex.com/articles/80569

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