SavedAdd your journal

Journals / Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi / 2019 / Cilt: 8 - Sayı: 3

Analysis of the Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis: Panel Data Approach

Üçüz Açıklar Hipotezinin Geçerliliğinin Analizi: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı

Selahattin GÜRİŞ
Metehan YILGÖR
Fulden KÖMÜRYAKAN
Pages
91–101
Publication Date
2019-09-01
DOI
—
🏛️Bibliographic metadata and full text access for this article are provided via DergiPark.
DergiPark Record ↗
✨

AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the information obtained from causality analysis, the triple deficit hypothesis was found to be valid for the analyzed countries in the time period analyzed.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:The hypothesis examining the causality relationship between budget deficit, current account deficit and saving deficit is known as triple deficit hypothesis in the literature.
📊
Key Findings & Data:This test developed in 2005 in order to analyze the stationarity of the series with one and two structural breaks.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:According to the information obtained from causality analysis, the triple deficit hypothesis was found to be valid for the analyzed countries in the time period analyzed.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2005 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Üçüz açıklar hipotezi · panel veri analizi · panel veri yapısal kırılmalı birim kök analizi

Abstract

The hypothesis examining the causality relationship between budget deficit, current account deficit and saving deficit is known as triple deficit hypothesis in the literature. The validity of the triplet deficit hypothesis has been the subject of many econometric studies and its validity has been analyzed in different time periods, for different countries, by applying different methods. In this study, the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis was analyzed with panel data methods. First, Im, Lee and Tieslau test were used to determine the stationarity of the series. This test developed in 2005 in order to analyze the stationarity of the series with one and two structural breaks. The homogeneity of the units analyzed in the panel data was examined by Swamy test before moving to panel causality analysis with stationary series. According to the information obtained from the test result, heterogeneous data set was analyzed. According to the test results, the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis was investigated by Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality analysis, which was developed for heterogeneous panel data and whose logic was based on Granger causality analysis. According to the information obtained from causality analysis, the triple deficit hypothesis was found to be valid for the analyzed countries in the time period analyzed.

Özet

Bütçe açığı, cari işlemler açığı ve tasarruf açığı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini inceleyen hipotez literatürde üçüz açıklar hipotezi olarak bilinmektedir. Üçüz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliği, hipotez ortaya konduğu günden bu yana birçok ekonometrik araştırmanın konusu olmuştur ve geçerliliği farklı dönemlerde, farklı ülkeler için, farklı yöntemlerle incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmada, üçüz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliği panel veri yöntemleri ile analiz edilmiştir. İlk olarak incelenecek serilerin durağanlıklarını analiz etmek amacıyla 2005 yılında geliştirilen yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testlerinden olan Im, Lee ve Tieslau testi uygulanarak serilerin durağanlık mertebeleri belirlenmiştir. Durağan serilerle panel nedensellik analizine geçmeden önce panel veride analiz edilen birimlerin homojenliği Swamy Homojenlik testi ile incelenmiştir. Test sonucuna göre, veri setinin heterojen olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu nedenle, heterojen panel veri için geliştirilen ve mantığı Granger nedensellik analizine dayanan Dumitrescu ve Hurlin nedensellik analizi uygulanarak üçüz açıklar hipotezinin geçerliliği incelenmiştir. Nedensellik analizi sonucunda üçüz açıklar hipotezinin incelenen ülkeler için incelenen dönemde geçerli olduğu belirlenmiştir.

🔖

Cite This Article

GÜRİŞ, S., YILGÖR, M., KÖMÜRYAKAN, F. (2019). Analysis of the Validity of the Triple Deficit Hypothesis: Panel Data Approach. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırma Dergisi, Cilt: 8 - Sayı: 3, 91–101. https://ajindex.com/articles/801664

📄 Full Text PDF Viewer

📄

PDF görüntüleyici hazırlanıyor...

References (19)

  1. Aristovnik, A. (2005). Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies. International Finance, 1-21.
  2. Bartolini, L., & Lahiri, A. (2006).
  3. Twin Deficits, Twenty Years Later. Current Issues in Economics and Finance. Baxter, M., & Crucini, M. (1995). Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade. International Economic Review, 821-854.
  4. Cavallo, M. (2005). Understanding the Twin Deficits: New Approaches, New Results. FRBSF Economic Letter. Dumitrescu, E., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 1450-1460.
  5. Granger, C. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 424-438.
  6. Güriş, B. (2018). Yapısal Kırılmalı Panel Birim Kök Testleri ve Eşbütünleme. B. Güriş içinde, Uygulamalı Panel Veri Ekonometrisi (s. 349-370). İstanbul:
  7. DER Yayınları.
  8. Güriş, S., & Yılgör, M. (2008). OECD Ülkelerinde Bütçe Açıkları ve Dış Ticaret Açıkları Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Veri ile Nedensellik Analizi. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 773-783.
  9. Hurlin, K. (2000). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. Econometrics Journal, 148–161.
  10. Im, K., Lee, J., & Tieslau, M. (2005). Panel LM Unit-Root Tests with Level Shifts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 393-419.
  11. Im, K., Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (1997). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Cambridge University, 1-30.
  12. Im, K., Pesaran, M., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 53-74.
  13. Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. (2003). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 1082-1089.
  14. Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. (2004). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break. Appalachian State University Working Papers, 1-15.
  15. Miller, S., & Russek, F. (1989). Are The Twin Deficits Really Related? Western Economic Association International, 91-115.
  16. Shastri, S., Giri, A. K., & Mohapatra, G. (2017). Assessing the Triple Deficit Hypothesis for Major South Asian Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 292-299.
  17. Swamy, P. (1970). Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model. Econometrica Journal of The Econometric Society, 311-323.
  18. Tang, T. (2014).
  19. Fiscal Deficit, Trade Deficit, and Financial Account Deficit: Triple Deficits Hypothesis with the U.S. Experience. Monash University Business and Economics, 1-13.