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Journals / Maliye Dergisi / 2014 / Sayı: 166

The impact of political ınstability on budget balance: The case of Turkey

Politik istikrarsızlığın bütçe dengesi üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği

Niyazi CANGİR
TANER TURAN
Pages
243–267
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

The OLS and GMM estimation results indicate that government instability has a negative and significant effect on budget balance.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:This study examines the effects of political instability on budget balance in Turkey using annual data for the period of 1955-2012.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The OLS and GMM estimation results indicate that government instability has a negative and significant effect on budget balance.
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Conclusion & Impact:In contrast, estimation results about variables reflecting social unrest and political violence are negative as expected, but not statistically strong.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2012 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

This study examines the effects of political instability on budget balance in Turkey using annual data for the period of 1955-2012. The study uses indicators of political instability and political instability index, which is constructed by principal component method. The OLS and GMM estimation results indicate that government instability has a negative and significant effect on budget balance. Similar results are obtained for the political instability index. In contrast, estimation results about variables reflecting social unrest and political violence are negative as expected, but not statistically strong.

Özet

Bu çalışmada politik istikrarsızlığın bütçe dengesi üzerindeki etkisi Türkiye’ye ilişkin 1955-2012 dönemi verileri kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada politik istikrarsızlığı yansıtan göstergeler ile bu göstergelerden temel bileşenler yöntemiyle elde edilen politik istikrarsızlık endeksleri kullanılmıştır. EKK ve GMM tahmin sonuçları hükümet istikrarsızlığının bütçe dengesi üzerinde negatif yönde anlamlı ve önemli bir etkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Benzeri bir sonuç politik istikrarsızlık endeksi için de elde edilmiştir. Buna karşılık, sosyal huzursuzluk ve politik şiddeti yansıtan değişkenlerin bütçe dengesi üzerindeki negatif etkisine ilişkin bulgular istatistiksel olarak güçlü değildir.

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Cite This Article

CANGİR, N., TURAN, T. (2014). The impact of political ınstability on budget balance: The case of Turkey. Maliye Dergisi, Sayı: 166, 243–267. https://ajindex.com/articles/78934

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