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Journals / Maliye Dergisi / 2017 / Sayı: 172

Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Turkey via Quantile Cointegration

Türkiye’de Mali Sürdürülebilirli÷in Kantil Eúbütünleúme Yöntemiyle Analizi

UĞUR AKKOÇ
Gamze KARGIN AKKOÇ
Pages
14–28
DOI
—
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AI Summary & Key Takeaways

AI Insight
⚡ TL;DR(Too Long; Didn't Read)

According to the results of the quantile regression method, there is a long-term relationship that varies across the quantiles between public expenditure and public income.

📌 3 Key Takeaways

🎯
Objective & Hypothesis:Fiscal sustainability means that the public debt stock will be met with the sum of future public revenues without any policy changes.
📊
Key Findings & Data:The aim of the study is to analyze fiscal sustainability and the relationship between public revenues and public expenditure in Turkey during 2006:1-2017:3.
💡
Conclusion & Impact:According to the results of the quantile regression method, there is a long-term relationship that varies across the quantiles between public expenditure and public income.
🔬Design:Research Article
📍Scope:2006 Verileri
⚙️Variables:Domain Parameters

Abstract

Fiscal sustainability means that the public debt stock will be met with the sum of future public revenues without any policy changes. The relationship between public revenues and public expenditure informs policymakers about public debts. The aim of the study is to analyze fiscal sustainability and the relationship between public revenues and public expenditure in Turkey during 2006:1-2017:3. For this purpose unit roots, cointegration tests with structural breaks and quantile cointegration tests were applied. According to the results of the quantile regression method, there is a long-term relationship that varies across the quantiles between public expenditure and public income. Consequently, fiscal sustainability continues in Turkey despite 2008 crisis even it’s in weak form.

Özet

Mali sürdürülebilirlik kamu borç stokunun herhangi bir politika değişikliğine gerek olmadan gelecek dönem kamu gelirlerinin toplamı ile karşılanması anlamına gelmektedir. Kamu geliri ile kamu harcaması arasındaki ilişki politika yapıcılara kamu borcunun yönetilmesine ilişkin bilgi verir. Çalışmanın amacı 2006:1-2017:3 döneminde Türkiye'de mali sürdürülebilirliği analiz etmek ve kamu geliri ile kamu harcaması arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu amaçla yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan birim kök, eşbütünleşme ve kantil eşbütünleşme testleri uygulanmıştır. Kantil regresyon yöntemiyle kamu harcaması ile kamu geliri arasında yüzdelik dilimler boyunca değişen uzun dönemli bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak Türkiye'de mali sürdürülebilirlik zayıf formda olsa da 2008 krizine rağmen devam etmektedir

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Cite This Article

AKKOÇ, U., AKKOÇ, G. K. (2017). Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability in Turkey via Quantile Cointegration. Maliye Dergisi, Sayı: 172, 14–28. https://ajindex.com/articles/78886

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